Key
Icons and Symbols
- Scheduled
- Voting
- Processing
- Projected Winner
- Key Races
- Runoff
- Flipped Seat
Political Parties
- Democratic
- Republican
- Libertarian
- Green
- Other
Predictions of the 2018 election results
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Most Likely Outcome
is forecasted to swing
DEMOCRAT HOUSE CONTROL
REPUBLICAN HOUSE CONTROL
Less likely election result
More likely
Margin of error predicts outcome 95% of the time
FORECAST MAP
Want to find out how your side is doing in a race? Simple — just locate it on the map. Some districts are very small, so we decided to lay a cartogram over the traditional map to give each district an equal size.
forecast winner
forecast loser
win margin
margin of error
Harry Explains the Forecast
What is the margin of error?
Look, we’re making a forecast. It’s not going to be perfect. Anything within this range could reasonably happen, though we expect the result to be close to our best estimate.
How does the prediction update?
The prediction updates every day as more polls come out. The prediction should become more accurate the closer we are to the election.
More questions?
Tweet at Harry @forecasterenten
Harry's Races to Watch
The 15 races with the smallest margin between parties
Predictions Scorecard
Circles are drawn to mark each prediction made since The Forecast started. The timeline below shows a detailed history of the estimates.
Estimated seat advantage over time
By Harry Enten, Sam Petulla, Parker Quinn, Brice Acree, Vijith Assar, Matthew Conlen, Brad Oyler, Will Mullery, Joyce Tseng and Mark Barilla.