August 9, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

One of Ukraine’s greatest tragedies as it pursues a critical offensive that has, so far, failed to meet its own and Western expectations is that it cannot, by itself, decide its destiny.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government is dependent on a massive pipeline of US and Western armaments. And Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose historical obsessions and personal power calculations thrust Ukraine into this horrific war, will also have a great say in if and when it ends.

So, while battlefield sacrifices will decide how much seized territory Ukraine recovers, the outcome of the war will also be shaped by outside factors, including shifting political forces in the US, Moscow and European capitals.

A stalled offensive and a winter stalemate, for instance, would have particular ramifications in the United States since it could heighten questions over US support for the war that will be pushed into an acrimonious election year.

Americans are braced for a potential clash between President Joe Biden, who revived the Western alliance and is Ukraine’s most critical outside supporter, and ex-President Donald Trump, a NATO skeptic who admires Putin and has pledged to end the war in 24 hours, likely on Putin’s terms. And even if Trump is not the GOP nominee in 2024, ebbing public support for the war could hurt Biden.

Therefore, for political, as well as strategic reasons, there is huge pressure on Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive this summer to produce significant battlefield breakthroughs.

But so far, the push is more of a slog than a blitzkrieg, raising the possibility the war could last at least deep into next year. If so, the elastic equation that underpins the entire conflict — involving Ukraine’s capacity to fight, Americans’ appetite for multi-billion dollar aid packages and Putin’s tolerance for horrendous casualties — will be even more taut.

Read Collinson's full analysis here.

A White House official says the US is aware Ukraine's counteroffensive isn't progressing as quickly as was expected, following CNN reporting that describes increasingly "sobering" assessments from Western officials about Kyiv's forces’ ability to retake significant territory.

“Even the Ukrainians … including President (Volodymyr) Zelensky, have said that they're not going as far or as fast as he would like," National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told CNN's Wolf Blitzer Tuesday.

Ukraine's offensive is "not without its difficulties, but they keep trying," he said.

On Tuesday, Ukraine claimed some advances in the southern Zaporizhzhia region despite troops' movement being slowed by mines.

Hee are the latest headlines from Russia's war in Ukraine:

Two drones were shot down in the Moscow suburbs early Wednesday, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.

There is an international airport in Domodedovo.

There is no information on casualties and a response team was working on the scene, he added.

The construction of a new camp to host Wagner Group fighters has begun in the Zyabrovka Air Base in Belarus, Ukrainian authorities claimed on Tuesday.

The center said it obtained this information from “underground sources.” 

CNN cannot independently verify the claims. 

Zyabrovka is located near Gomel in southeastern Belarus, about 40 kilometers from the border with Ukraine's Chernihiv region.

The camp can house around 1,000 personnel and looks like a tent city, the center said.

It claimed “there remains a high probability” that Belarus and Russia will use the camp to intimidate neighboring European countries in order to create an illusion that “the mercenaries are ready to invade the EU.” This, in turn, could make European nations “reduce their support for Ukraine,” the center claimed. 

Some context: Poland recently accused Belarus of violating its airspace, raising tensions between the NATO member and the key Kremlin ally in an increasingly volatile security landscape in Europe. Thousands of Wagner troops were reportedly sent to Belarus after President Alexander Lukashenko reportedly brokered a deal to end the mercenary fighters' failed rebellion against Moscow in June.

The US is aware the Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russia isn't progressing as quickly as was expected, White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said Tuesday.

His comments follow reporting from CNN that describes increasingly “sobering” assessments from Western officials about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory.

And in a video released by his office Tuesday, Zelensky acknowledged the counteroffensive hasn't been easy and is "happening probably slower" than some had hoped.

In terms of military aid to Ukraine, Kirby said the US will continue to provide military resources to Kyiv, including mine-clearing equipment, artillery ammunition and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.

As Ukraine reels from the latest round of Russian missile attacks, residents in the eastern city of Pokrovsk recalled the harrowing experience of a "double-tap" strike Monday that left at least nine people dead and 82 injured.

After the first strike, military personnel warned them to take shelter for a possible second attack — but her husband was stood on the balcony, she said.

"I heard this growing rumble and I shouted for him to get out of there," she said. "But he didn't manage, he just fell to the floor and covered his head with hands. He was literally covered in glass."

The explosion threw Liudmyla into another room. "You're flying and you don't realize where you are," she said. "I just yelled to my husband to see if he was alive. He responded, I crawled to him and shattered the glass."

She also had a message for the Russian forces laying siege to Ukraine.

Another resident, Alla, whose home is also close to the area that was hit, said she and her husband went outside after the first explosion. When they returned to their apartment after the second explosion, "we saw there were no windows, no balcony, no electricity," she said.

"Of course, we were very much scared," she added. "We were terribly stressed, because it was very loud. We didn't sleep the whole night. How can one sleep here, when there are no windows?"

Ukrainian authorities are urging residents in the eastern city of Kupyansk to evacuate children and those with limited mobility following a recent escalation of Russian attacks.

At least three civilians were killed and nine others injured Tuesday after Russian missiles hit a village near the city in the Kharkiv region, which was liberated by Ukrainian forces last year.

"Starting from the de-occupation in September 2022, the Kupyansk community has been constantly suffering from shelling," Andrii Besedin, head of the Kupyansk city military administration, said Tuesday on national television. 

Besedin said Russian attacks now include the use of guided aerial bombs.

City authorities launched a voluntary evacuation plan in November last year, but a number of residents have chosen to stay.

Russian attacks: Moscow's forces have stepped up their offensive across the region in an effort to reclaim territory. On Monday, Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on YouTube that "the Kupyansk direction was probably the hottest" as Russian forces try to regain positions lost last autumn. "They have such a plan — they want to return the territories they lost in Kharkiv region," she said. 

Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and Western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.

Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.

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