March 8, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said people should be wary of drawing conclusions too hastily after the recent release of media reports alleging that a "pro-Ukrainian group" may have been behind last year’s attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.

In an interview with the German public radio station Deutschlandfunk (DLF), Pistorius said it is also possible that the attack was a false-flag operation.

"It does not help us to think about the impact this would have on our support for Ukraine on the basis of such research, which has undoubtedly been done painstakingly and meticulously," Pistorius said.

Some context: Mystery has surrounded who might be responsible for the brazen sabotage last September, which damaged two pipes transporting Russian gas into the European Union and targeted a crucial source of revenue for Moscow. Both pipelines were closed at the time of the attack.

A report by the New York Times Tuesday cited new intelligence that a "pro-Ukrainian group" may have been behind the attack. Ukraine has denied any involvement.

"Although I enjoy collecting amusing conspiracy theories about (the Ukrainian) government, I have to say: (Ukraine) has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea mishap and has no information about ‘pro-(Ukraine) sabotage groups,'" Mykhailo Podolyak, top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote on Twitter.

European Union member states must quickly reach a consensus on funding for ammunition for Ukraine, Estonia’s defense minister said Wednesday.

"When we bring this fresh money, then this will also increase the capacity of the industry, and this is what we need anyway also for the future, that the European industries are capable of producing more shells."

Some of that new money is expected to be used to purchase 155-millimeter artillery shells.

Some background: Last week, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky met with top government officials from the Netherlands and Estonia in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.

Zelensky expressed his gratitude for the "significant defense, financial, energy and legal support" provided by both countries since the beginning of Russia's invasion, his office said in a statement.

The Ukrainian military says that Russian attacks in the Bakhmut area continue, but describes them as unsuccessful and incurring heavy losses.

The Ukrainian General Staff update Wednesday spoke of offensive actions by Russian forces around several settlements west of Bakhmut. It did not address the claim by the head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, that his fighters now hold the eastern part of the city.

The General Staff said that "our defenders repelled more than 100 enemy attacks" along the front line in Donetsk region on Tuesday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that, were the Russians to capture Bakhmut, they would have an open road to Ukraine's larger industrial cities further west.

Some Ukrainian soldiers in the Bakhmut area have said that getting in and out of the city has become almost impossible because the Russians have all the routes to the west under their fire control. The dirt track being used has become almost impassable for any organized military column.

What Russia could do with Bakhmut: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based military organization that closely monitors the conflict in Ukraine, assesses that "Russian forces lack the capability to exploit the tactical capture of Bakhmut."

The ISW analysis said that the Russians' growing use of "small assault detachments using simplified tactics, combined with mounting losses among the most effective Russian troops, will likely greatly limit the ability of Russian forces to properly exploit any paths of advance opened by the capture of Bakhmut."

Georgia's Ministry of Internal Affairs detained 66 people on Tuesday evening during protests against a so-called anti-foreign agents bill at the parliament building in Tbilisi, the country's public broadcaster First Channel reported Wednesday.  

The ministry said those held are being charged with petty hooliganism and disobeying police, according to First Channel. 

Protests erupted in the Georgian capital on Tuesday as the first reading the draft law on foreign agents was adopted in parliament. Critics say the law would limit press freedom and restrict civil society. 

The ministry said the protest went beyond the framework of a peaceful assembly and turned violent. The protesters tried to block entrances to parliament, threw stones, smashed glasses and damaged iron fences, according to First Channel. 

Police were forced to use what authorities called proportional force to restore public order, the ministry said, according to Fist Channel. 

The United States Embassy in Georgia said Tuesday was a "dark day for Georgia's democracy," while EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said the Georgian Parliament's passage of the legislation was a "very bad development" for Georgia and its people. 

The International Monetary Fund has drawn criticism for forecasting that Russia will see stronger economic growth this year than either the United Kingdom or Germany, despite rising pressure from Western sanctions.

But Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, told CNN’s Poppy Harlow that the economic outlook for Russia beyond 2023 is “quite devastating.”

In January, the IMF projected that Russia’s economy would expand by 0.3% this year and 2.1% the next. That was much more optimistic than the latest forecasts from both the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Economists at those groups have penciled in contractions of 3.3% and 5.6% in 2023, respectively.

Even Russia’s own central bank, which extended emergency capital controls for another six months on Monday, has said gross domestic product might contract by 1% this year.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale management professor, wrote in Fortune magazine Monday that the “IMF has been asleep at the switch” and parroting propaganda from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Read more here.

Protests erupted in Georgia's capital city on Tuesday after parliament passed the first reading of a controversial draft law that would require some organizations receiving foreign funding to register as “foreign agents.”

Protesters’ chants, with insults aimed at both Georgian politicians and Russian President Vladimir Putin, underline fears that the bill follows the model of a controversial law in neighboring Russia that has already imposed draconian restrictions and requirements on organizations and individuals with foreign ties.

Thousands of protesters could be seen outside the parliament building on Tuesday night, holding not just the Georgian flag but also European Union and Ukraine flags, as longstanding tensions in the country -- parts of which are occupied by Russia -- bubbled to the surface.

Some protesters threw stones and petrol bombs, as security forces responded with tear gas and water cannon. Video posted on social media also showed protesters storming a barricade at the entrance to the parliament building and tearing it down.

There are fears the law could impede the country’s hopes of closer ties with the European Union.

The President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, threw her support behind protesters, in a video message posted on Facebook, saying “the path of European integration must be protected. Those who support this law today, all those who voted for this law today are violating the Constitution. All of them are alienating us from Europe,” she said.

Zourabichvili called it “an unnecessary law that did not come out of nowhere, but was dictated by Moscow,” telling protesters that she was “standing next to you because you are the very people who represent free Georgia today. The Georgia which sees its future in Europe and will not let anyone take this future away from it.”

The Georgian bill has been widely criticized as posing a potential chilling effect for Georgian civil society, and particularly NGOs and news organizations with links to Europe.

The former Soviet republic has played a balancing act between its citizens’ pro-European sentiment and its regional positioning next to Russia. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in 2011 that had Russia not invaded Georgia in 2008, NATO would have expanded into Georgia.

The invasion only lasted a couple days, but it appeared to have the same pretext Russian President Vladimir Putin used to invade Ukraine in 2014 and last year, writes think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

“In the last few years, and especially over the past 18 months, Georgia’s ruling coalition has made a series of moves that seem designed to distance the country from the West and shift it gradually into Russia’s sphere of influence,” ECFR writes in a report where it attributes much of the drift to the ruling Georgian Dream party.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian private military company Wagner, claimed on Wednesday that the eastern part of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is now under its control. 

CNN cannot independently confirm Prigozhin’s claim and has reached out to the Ukrainian military for its response.

On Tuesday, footage geolocated by CNN showed Wagner fighters plant the group's flag on top of a monument in eastern Bakhmut.

The monument is located 500 meters from the Bakhmutka river, suggesting that Ukrainian forces may have withdrawn from the eastern part of the city to consolidate their positions west of the river.

Reports that a "pro-Ukrainian group" carried out the attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines last year are part of a "misinformation campaign," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media on Wednesday. 

His comments come after the New York Times on Tuesday published a report citing new intelligence reviewed by US officials that a "pro-Ukrainian group" may have been behind last September's attack targeting Russia’s gas deliveries to Europe.

Ukraine has denied any involvement in the sabotage.

Peskov also “expressed bewilderment” as to how US officials could "make assumptions about terrorist attacks" on the pipelines without an investigation, RIA reported. He called for an “urgent, transparent investigation” into the incident, RIA said. 

Some context: Mystery has surrounded who might be responsible for the brazen sabotage, which damaged two pipes transporting Russian gas into the European Union and targeted a crucial source of revenue for Moscow. Both pipelines were closed at the time of the attack, which came months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

A source familiar with the US intelligence told CNN the assessment cited in the New York Times' report was not made with high confidence and is not the predominant view of the intelligence community. The US has not yet identified a culprit for the attack, the source said.

Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, discussed the situation in Bakhmut with US and NATO military leaders, he said in a Telegram post on Tuesday.

Present in the meeting were Supreme Allied Commander Europe and commander of US European Command general Christopher G. Cavoli, UK Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Anthony Radakin; Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces General Rajmund Andrzejczak and Commander of US of Security Assistance Group–Ukraine Gen.-Lt. Antonio Aguto.