May 2, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

Russia has built "extensive systems of military defensive works" in southern regions bordering with Ukraine, indicating the Kremlin's "deep concern" Kyiv's spring counteroffensive could mark a "major breakthrough" in the conflict, according to the latest intelligence update from Britain’s defense intelligence agency on Monday.

The update said Moscow has constructed some of the most sprawling and complex defensive trenches "seen anywhere in the world for many decades," along the northern border of annexed Crimea, and "well inside" Russia's southern Belgorod and Kursk regions.

"These defences are not just near the current front lines but have also been dug deep inside areas Russia currently controls," the agency said in an assessment shared on Twitter Monday. It added that construction started in summer 2022, several months after Russia launched its brutal military campaign.

"However, some works have likely been ordered by local commanders and civil leaders in attempts to promote the official narrative that Russia is ‘threatened’ by Ukraine and NATO."

Some background: Satellite imagery reviewed by CNN and other news organizations shows the extent of Russian defenses that have been built up in parts of southern Ukraine – layers of anti-tank ditches, obstacles, minefields and trenches.

The defenses continue for hundreds of miles across the meandering southern front – where Ukrainian forces are expected to concentrate their counter-offensive in the coming weeks.

Such defenses, however, are only as good as the forces assigned to each sector. On their own they are a limited impediment. Which is why the Russians have pushed more units into southern Ukraine. These defensive lines have become critical to their overall goals.

Read more on the spring offensive here:

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Ukraine could launch its offensive against Russia any moment. Here's what's waiting | CNN

Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko said on Tuesday that weather is hampering Ukraine’s much anticipated spring offensive, even as senior officials in Kyiv signal that preparations are reaching their final stage.

Prystaiko added that he understood Ukraine had now received “98% of everything we asked for this particular counter offensive," as Western allies continue to pledge military aid and support to Kyiv.

Ukraine has been preparing for a spring offensive likely in the south. When launched, it will mark a significant shift in the grueling conflict. Asked where the war is going, Prystaiko said: "That's why we're trying to have this really breakthrough offensive. But too much hope is put on this one."

On Friday, Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said plans for the counter offensive are almost complete.

“Preparations [for the counteroffensive] are coming to an end,” Reznikov said.

“In a global sense, we are ready in a high percentage mode. The next question is up to the General Staff ... As soon as it is God's will, the weather and the commanders' decision, we will do it."

Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive appears imminent – and the way each side is preparing speaks volumes about their readiness.

Kyiv’s front lines are abuzz with vehicle movement and artillery strikes, with regular explosions hitting vital Russian targets in occupied areas.

Its defense minister has said preparations are “coming to an end” and President Volodymyr Zelensky has assured a counteroffensive “will happen,” while demurring on any exact start date.

It may have already started; it may be weeks away. We don’t know – and that fact is a strong measure of Ukraine’s success as this begins.

First, the apparent firing of the deputy defense minister in charge of logistics, Mikhail Mizintsev. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not spelled out his dismissal, merely issuing a decree that Aleksey Kuzmenkov now has his job.

The “Butcher of Mariupol,” as Mizintsev is known, surely had enough failings over Russia’s disastrous war to merit his firing. But this fails to satisfy the question: Why now?

By removing key ministers in the moments before its army faces Ukraine’s counter-assault, Moscow sends a message of disarray.

Read the full story:

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As Ukraine prepares counteroffensive, Russia appears in disarray | CNN

A Russian official on Tuesday said Ukrainian forces had shelled the border town of Kurkovichi overnight — the third time in three days he has accused Ukraine of attacking the southwest Russian region of Bryansk.

Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz, whose region shares a border to its south with Ukraine and to its west with Belarus, made the latest allegations in a Twitter post, adding there were no casualties.

It comes after he claimed on Monday that an IED exploded along the Bryansk-Unecha railway, which borders Ukraine, causing a freight train to derail.

Video footage taken at the scene of the railway explosion shows dozens of destroyed and burned out rail cars smoldering as emergency crews put out several fires. There were no casualties in that incident, he said.

On Sunday, the governor said Ukrainian shelling killed four civilians after strikes hit residential buildings in the village of Suzemka, in Syzemsky district.

In all instances, Bogomaz has not provided any evidence and CNN cannot independently verify his claims. Ukraine has not commented on the alleged incidents.

Russia's winter offensive has “backfired” as its forces suffered more than 100,000 casualties since December, according to new estimated figures announced by the Biden administration on Monday.

White House official John Kirby told reporters Russia has "exhausted its military stockpiles and its armed forces" and the US estimates more than 20,000 of its troops have been killed in action in recent months. 

The US defines a “casualty” as wounded or killed.  

Here are the latest developments:

Video footage taken at the scene of Monday's track explosion, which caused a freight train derailment in Bryansk, Russia, shows dozens of destroyed and burned out rail cars smoldering as emergency crews put out several fires.

Alexander Bogomaz, the region’s governor, wrote on Telegram that an explosive detonated 136 kilometers (85 miles) along the Bryansk-Unecha railway, which borders Ukraine. He added there are no casualties. 

"You must highlight the wretchedness of those who are doing the planning in the Ukrainian special forces. They came here and put down mines, blew up a commercial train. How vile!" said Sergey Karnaukhov, the pro-Kremlin blogger and activist who posted videos from the scene of the incident.

CNN cannot independently verify the allegations made by Karnaukhov as to who was responsible for the derailment. Ukraine has not yet commented on the incident. 

Ukraine said it has “no knowledge” of a peace mission involving the Vatican to resolve the conflict with Russia.

“President Zelensky has not consented to any such discussions on Ukraine’s behalf,” a Ukrainian official close to the presidential office told CNN.

The official dismissed any papal role after Pope Francis on Sunday told journalists the Vatican is part of a mission to end the war in Ukraine. “The mission is in the course now, but it is not yet public,” he said after a three-day trip to Hungary.

“When it is public, I will reveal it,” the pope added.

Last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met Francis at the Vatican and said he had discussed a “peace formula” put forward by Zelensky and invited the pope to visit Ukraine.

Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties since December and the "stunning" number is a key signal that Moscow's winter offensive has “backfired,” according to new estimated figures announced by the Biden administration on Monday.

The US is defining the term “casualty” as both wounded and killed.  

Kirby, who serves as National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, noted that “nearly half” of those casualties were fighters with the Russian private company Wagner — whom CNN has reported have experienced horrific experiences on the battlefield following minimal training and little leadership.

Kirby lambasted a recent assertion from Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who said Sunday that his group had only suffered 94 casualties. Kirby called Prigozhin's comments “just a ludicrous claim.” 

Pressed on the source of the new 100,000 figure, Kirby said it was “based on some downgraded intelligence that we’ve been able to collect.” He declined to provide information on Ukrainian casualties, noting that the US has “never” provided such information and would defer to Ukraine on the matter.

Kirby added that the Ukrainians “are the victims here, Russia is the aggressor, and I'm simply not going to put information in the public domain that's going to, again, make it any harder for the Ukrainians."

The official noted that it's ultimately Ukraine's decision to declassify the information and make their casualty figures public. "I don't need to abide by that same sense of courtesy for the Russians — haven't done it and I ain't going to start now," he said.

With regards to fighting on the ground, Kirby said “most” of Russia’s efforts have “stalled and failed” as the battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut continues. He added that Russia has made “incremental” gains in the town that has “very little strategic value.” 

“The bottom line is that Russia's attempted offensive has backfired. After months of fighting and extraordinary losses, Russia continues to be focused on a single Ukrainian city with limited strategic value," the official said.

Kirby said any decision about a spring counteroffensive from Ukraine would be “for President (Volodymyr) Zelensky to make,” but the US will continue to provide military aid and support. 

The US official also told reporters a future package for Ukraine would be unveiled "very soon."

"What we want to stay focused on is making sure that we're helping them be as ready as they can be for whenever they choose to step off. And that means, obviously, in material support,” he told reporters.

The Ukrainian military says it is locked in a “positional struggle” as fierce fighting rages in Bakhmut, adding it has been able to push back Russian forces after a series of counterattacks.

“I can definitely confirm the information that the enemy in Bakhmut left some positions after some of our counterattacks,” Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, told a national broadcaster. 

Cherevatyi added that for all its efforts, Russia still had not been able to “completely” capture the eastern city. 

And although the Russian military’s airborne units had reinforced positions in Bakhmut, Wagner forces continued to be the ones carrying out the assaults, he added. 

“However, due to heavy losses, they have been reinforced by airborne units. In addition, in an effort to capture Bakhmut completely, we also note that the enemy is also using snipers from special units and even special services (counterterrorism, for instance) to hit our positions as much as possible," he said.

Cherevatyi said Russian forces were having to be more mindful of their use of artillery shells and rockets, but rejected claims by Wagner founder and financier Yevgeny Prigozhin that his fighters were being starved of ammunition.

He concluded by defending Ukraine’s strategy for the region, stating "the enemy has not been able to take Bakhmut for nine months."