May 7, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

The US has high confidence in the accuracy of Ukraine’s claim that it used an American-made Patriot air defense system to intercept a Russian hypersonic missile, according to a source familiar with the matter.  

While the Patriot system has been successful in countering ballistic missiles, its ability to stop air-launched hypersonic missiles was purely theoretical before last week. Ukraine’s intercept has now provided a real-world demonstration of that capability — something that has been viewed within the Pentagon as a major development, the source said. 

Ukraine’s intercept claim created buzz within the Pentagon late last week, the source added, noting it is significant for several reasons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly touted the capabilities of Russia’s hypersonic weapons and cast them as capable of overcoming all existing air defense systems. 

Production of hypersonic ballistic missiles has always been challenging for Russia and sanctions have only made it more difficult. 

But prior to last week, Russia’s calculus was that if it did use a hypersonic ballistic missile, whatever it was shooting at would assuredly get hit, the source said. This intercept has called that calculation into question, they continued.

The fact that this intercept was conducted by a Ukrainian crew that was trained in Oklahoma, but had no US advisers on the battlefield, is even more of a feather in the cap for the Pentagon, the source added, calling it a major return on investment. 

The intercept also has likely caused a severe amount of uncertainty for Russia, raising the question of whether Ukraine is in possession of a sustainable countermeasure against hypersonic ballistic missiles, the source added. 

A Russian fighter jet intercepted a Polish border guard aircraft flying a mission above the Black Sea near the Romanian border Friday, which almost resulted in a collision, according to Romanian authorities.

The Polish Border Guard said on Twitter that the Russian Su-35 flew into the area without radio contact and performed "aggressive and dangerous" maneuvers.

The incident took place on Friday at 6:20 a.m. ET, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) east of Romania’s airspace, the Romanian defense ministry said in a statement Sunday.

The Polish aircraft was there as part of a joint mission coordinated by the European Union border patrol system Frontex.

The mission, which is set to last until mid-December, focuses on preventing irregular migration, illegal fishing, marine pollution, and combatting other cross-border crimes in the western Black Sea, according to the defense ministry.

The ministry said that, as a result of the incident, two combat aircraft of the Romanian air force as well as two aircraft of the Spanish Air Force were prepared to intervene by the NATO Combined Air Operations Center in Torrejon, Spain, but that their intervention was not necessary.

The eastern city of Bakhmut has been the site of a months-long assault by Russian forces that has forced thousands from their homes and left the area devastated.

Bakhmut has not yet fallen under total Russian control. On his official Telegram channel on Saturday, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin — whose mercenaries have played a huge part in Russia's advance — claimed to have taken 95% of the city.

Ukrainian soldiers have dug in, while Wagner troops have sought to encircle the city in a wide arc from the north, making sluggish progress since the capture of the nearby town of Soledar in January.

The fall of Bakhmut would mark a rare breakthrough by Russia in what has become a slow-moving ground war in the east that has at times resembled the trench warfare of World War I.

But, despite the time, manpower and resources poured into capturing the city, its strategic value has always been dubious.

Bakhmut — a relatively small city in eastern Donestk — is not the sort of city Moscow would have hoped to be fighting for in the second year of its invasion.

Instead, the city has come to be prized more for the symbolic value its capture would lend to Russia. It would give Russian President Vladimir Putin a much-needed victory — and relief from criticism at home of his faltering invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier in May the US said that 20,000 of Russia's troops have been killed in action in recent months in Ukraine with most of its efforts having “stalled and failed."

Russian-installed authorities have said they are continuing to evacuate Zaporizhzhia region residents away from front lines in the annexed region.

Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Russian-appointed military-civilian administration in occupied Zaporizhzhia, claimed on Telegram that 1,552 residents “are in safety now."

The evacuations come amid rumours of a looming Ukrainian counteroffensive, with the Zaporizhzhia region likely to be a target.

Meanwhile, Yurii Malashko, a Ukrainian official and head of the Zaporizhzhia region military administration, said on Telegram that Russians were continuing to shell the region, but with no casualties in the last 24 hours.

Rehearsals for Russia’s annual Victory Day Parade, to mark the end of the Second World War, began in Moscow on Sunday.

Soldiers could be seen marching down the Red Square which has been decorated with signs and installations bearing the date of the planned parade.

The Victory Day Parade is held every year on on May 9 to mark the anniversary of when Nazi Germany unconditionally surrendered in 1945.

The parade has been used by Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years as a stage to flout Russia’s military prowess.

This year’s parade will be the second since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine. It will be held just days after Russia alleged that Ukraine launched a drone attack on the Kremlin. Kyiv has denied involvement in the attack.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, has apparently backtracked on a threat to pull his forces from the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after being promised more ammunition.

In an explosive, expletive-laden rant this week, Prigozhin had previously declared that his men would leave the area by May 10 because of heavy casualties and inadequate supplies.

But a new audio message posted Sunday on Telegram suggests he has changed his mind after concessions from the Russian government.

The Russian Ministry of Defence did not immediately comment on Prigozhin’s latest claim.

The Wagner boss had said Wagner positions in and around Bakhmut would be transferred to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces from May 10.

Prigozhin had also floated the possibility that Wagner might be disbanded, but appeared to also ow back from these suggestions in the audio message.

While the fury of conflict echoes across the eastern Donbas region, a very different war is being waged in Crimea: one of night-time explosions, sabotage and disinformation.

Reclaiming Crimea -- which Russia illegally annexed in 2014 -- may seem like an unlikely quest for Ukraine, but it is putting considerable effort into making Russia's occupation as uncomfortable as possible.

Few details emerge about Ukrainian strikes in Crimea. Only occasionally does social media video provide clues about what has been hit. Circumspect Ukrainian officials rarely refer to any actions taken in the region.

But this weekend's drone strikes -- reported by Russia on Sunday -- have just raised the stakes.

Read our full report on Ukraine's plans for the "de-occupation" of Crimea here.

Russian forces have used a variety of missiles and air-launched weapons against several regions of Ukraine in the past 24 hours, according to the Ukrainian military.

It said the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions in the south and Kharkiv in the north came under fire.

There has been an uptick in the use of air-launched missiles and bombs by Russian forces in recent days.

The Ukrainian military said that Russian "strategic aircraft launched missile attacks on Ukraine's southern regions overnight. The enemy struck Mykolaiv region with five X-22 missiles, and Kherson region with one missile."

X-22 missiles: The X-22, also known as the Kh-22, is a powerful missile originally designed to destroy large ships. It is also frequently inaccurate. X-22 strikes have been responsible for heavy civilian casualties in Ukraine.

However, Ukraine's Operational Command South said there had been no casualties in the latest strikes, which included "an industrial facility."

Strikes increase: The Ukrainian military’s General Staff reported Sunday that over the past day Russia carried out six missile attacks, including close to the front lines in Bakhmut and in Kherson.

The General Staff also noted 48 airstrikes and 77 strikes using multiple launch rocket systems.

In Kharkiv region, the head of the military administration, Oleh Syniebuhov, said that an S-300 missile had struck a depot of vehicles in Balakliya near Izium. He said five civilians had been injured.

A thousand people have been evacuated and placed in temporary accommodation from the frontline territories in the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia region, according to Yevgeniy Balitskiy, the Russia-appointed head of the local administration.

Balitskiy said in a statement that he had visited the temporary accommodation where the "first thousand" people have been accommodated, adding that "buses keep arriving, people are also getting here in their cars," in an update on Sunday.

The people who have been evacuated include children of primary school age.

Balitskiy claimed that the evacuees "have everything they need: food, a place to sleep, constant contact and consultation with specialists."

Russia controls much of the Zaporizhzhia region and it could be a target for Ukraine should it launch its heavily anticipated counteroffensive.