May 10, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

The US intelligence community believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is likely to become “more unpredictable and escalatory” in the coming months, the nation’s director of national intelligence told Congress on Tuesday. 

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines painted a grim and uncertain picture of the next phase of Putin’s two-month-old invasion, which she told the Senate Armed Services Committee will be difficult to predict in part because “Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities.” 

Still, Haines told lawmakers, the intelligence community does not believe Putin would turn to the use of nuclear weapons unless he felt there was an existential threat to Russia.

The intelligence community believes that Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict — and that his goals extend far beyond the eastern region of the Donbas, where his military is currently focused after being repelled from Kyiv in the early weeks of the war. 

In the near term, Putin wants to capture the two eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, control the city of Kherson and potentially extend a land bridge around the southern rung of the country to Transnistria, a separatist region of Moldova where Russian troops are currently stationed, Haines said. 

But to reach Transnistria, the intelligence community believes that Putin would need to launch a full mobilization inside Russia, a step he has so far not taken. 

“As both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily, we do not see a viable negotiating path forward, at least in the short term,” Haines said. 

The bodies of 44 civilians were found in the rubble of a five-story building in the town of Izium, which is currently controlled by Russian troops, according to the head of the Kharkiv regional military administration.

Oleh Syniehubov said the building had been "completely destroyed by the occupiers" but it's not yet clear when it happened.

Russian forces have been in control of Izium for nearly two months. Before that, the town was heavily contested and intensively shelled.

Syniehubov said that locals who had stayed behind in Izium had excavated the site.

He said there was "no special equipment for dismantling debris, everything is done by hand."

"And of course it does not happen around the clock. When there is no shelling, people come out and try to dismantle those blockages," he added.

What's unclear is whether Russian forces in the area were aware of the operation and permitted the retrieval of the bodies.

Syniebuhov said that, since Izium was occupied, about 1,700 people had been evacuated while what he called a "green corridor" was in existence.

"After that, the occupiers did not allow people to be taken out or humanitarian aid brought there," he added.

He also said that Tsirkuny, a town near Kharkiv, had been liberated and described the scene there as a "total war crime."

What we know: The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office said a criminal case "for violating the laws and customs of war, combined with premeditated murder" has been opened.

Between March 7 and 10, the Russian military "systematically shelled the city of Izium. As a result of the shelling, public infrastructure and residential buildings were destroyed," the prosecutor's office said. "So far, the bodies of the victims have been removed from the rubble, and 14 people have been identified."

Chinese President Xi Jinping "agreed on the urgency of a cease-fire" in Ukraine during a 90-minute phone call with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, the Élysée Palace said in a statement on Tuesday.

“All efforts to provide humanitarian support to the Ukrainian population should also be supported," it added.

Belarus has started the second stage of inspection of its army's reaction forces, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said Tuesday in a video commentary posted on the Telegram account of Belarusian state media Belta.

"This is all planned as part of an adequate response to the 'Defender-Europe' exercises that have been taking place on the territory of NATO countries since May 1," Khrenin said.

He said that the Belarusian side watches the NATO exercises and sees "every movement that battalion groups are involved in" and "the tasks that they plan to carry out."

Last week, the Belarusian army began a previously unannounced inspection of its reaction force, planning movement of a significant amount of military equipment, according to a statement published by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense.

The threat of missile strikes on military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine from the territory of the Republic of Belarus has never ceased, said Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, the spokesperson of Ukraine's defense ministry, last Wednesday.

"As you know, today the Russian army is using the territory of the Republic of Belarus as a springboard for the attack on Ukraine. In fact, due to this, Russian units were able to appear in the suburbs of the capital so quickly," Motuzyanyk said last week.

More than eight million people have been internally displaced in Ukraine, according to the latest report from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a United Nations agency.

Over 18% — or nearly one in five — of Ukraine's pre-war population is now internally displaced, said the fourth Ukraine Internal Displacement Report, published Monday.

The latest survey, conducted between April 29 and May 3, found that 63% of those internally displaced are women. 

More than 50% of displaced households have children, 55% include elderly members and over 30% have people with chronic illnesses, according to the survey.

With more than 5.9 million refugees having left Ukraine for neighboring countries, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, a total of at least 13.9 million people have been left displaced since the beginning of the Russian invasion in late February.

Ahead of US President Joe Biden’s remarks on addressing inflation Tuesday, the White House sought to tie record high US gas prices to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Rouse also indicated that the possibility of a national gas tax holiday was one of many options on the table.

“The President understands the uncertainty ... All measures are on the table. He is focused on these issues,” she added as she laid out longer-term measures to relieve pricing pressures. 

She later reiterated that Biden wants to consider all measures but he will need the support of his partners in Congress.

“He cannot do everything unilaterally. So he needs to work with partners in Congress in order to make meaningful change, but it's very important to understand that this President is focused on rising prices," she continued.

Later on Tuesday morning, Biden is expected to lay out a “whole of government approach” to combating inflation. She indicated that Chinese tariffs and trade policy more broadly will be part of his speech, as well as clean energy, and later called on Congress to confirm the administration’s Federal Reserve nominees.

She dismissed a recent assertion from Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who has indicated the US is already in a recession.

“I’m not sure where that comes from,” she said, laughing, as she outlined economic growth in 2021 and GDP. “We are not expecting that we're already in the recession. In fact, the guts and the bones of this economy remains strong. Yes, there are headwinds, yes, there's uncertainty, which is why the President is so focused on trying to reduce costs and grow this economy by investing in people in our physical infrastructure, and really building the kind of economy that will generate sustainable growth going forward."

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock discussed the impact of seeing where Ukrainians were killed and left in the street for days in the town of Bucha.

Baerbock, speaking during a news conference with her Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv, said it was important that displaced people will be able to come back to their homes. 

“This is not only about military support, where Germany has stood by your side for some time, but now it is also about [developing] conditions in towns, cities, in communities further, together, so that people can return,” Baerbock said.

“I cannot forget that these arms deliveries are also there to ensure that war crimes do not take place in other places," Baerbock said.

US officials found Russian President Vladimir Putin muted and subdued when he delivered his Victory Day address on Monday, further obscuring their attempts to ascertain the Russian leader's ultimate objectives in Ukraine.

Officials inside the Biden administration have been contemplating ways Putin could exit his unprovoked war should he choose to do so, as the conflict grinds on and the Russian leader loses his chance for a quick triumph.

US officials still believe Putin is undeterred and wants a tangible victory in Ukraine. But they don't know what measure could be sufficient for Putin to declare victory, one official told CNN, who said his goals are not readily apparent.

The difficulty in assessing Putin's aims was underscored by comments from President Joe Biden at a fundraiser Monday night, where he said he is concerned the Russian leader has not yet devised a way out of the ongoing war in Ukraine, despite Putin's "calculating" nature. 

CIA Director Bill Burns also shared his concerns over the weekend, describing Putin "in a frame of mind in which he doesn't believe he can afford to lose."

"I think he's convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress," Burns said.

Putin so far has failed to achieve any of his major war objectives in Ukraine. After initially believing his forces could take Kyiv and dismantle President Volodymyr Zelensky's government within days, Putin was forced to recalculate and focus on eastern Ukraine. But that too has proven to be an incremental fight, according to assessments from the Pentagon.

Read the full report here.

Ukrainian soldiers trapped in the Azovstal steel plant say there was heavy shelling overnight and, for a while, they lost contact with the field hospital at the complex in Mariupol.

The deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, Captain Svyatoslav Palamar, said the bombardment had gone on all night long, and had included Russian planes.

Kateryna Polishchuk, one of the soldiers trapped at the steel plant, has issued a defiant message via Facebook that the plant's defenders will fight to the last.

A former music student, the 21-year-old combat medic was seen last week leading the soldiers in singing the army's battle hymn. Since then she has become known on social media as "The Bird."

The video was uploaded to the Facebook page of another soldier at Azovstal, as the last holdout of resistance in the southern city continues to endure heavy shelling.