May 16, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

Finland and Sweden are poised to end decades of neutrality by joining NATO, a dramatic evolution in European security and geopolitics sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The two Nordic nations had long kept the military alliance at an arm's length, even while eying Russia to their east with caution.

But Moscow's assault on Ukraine has sparked renewed security concern across the region, and the leaders of each country have signaled their desire to join the bloc after more than 75 years of military non-alignment.

What's happened so far? Finnish leaders announced their intentions to join NATO on Thursday, and formally presented that desire at a press conference on Sunday.

In Sweden on Sunday, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced during a press conference her party's support for the country to apply to join NATO.

The move must be approved by a vote in parliament in each country, but given the support of the ruling governments, that hurdle is expected to be passed comfortably.

What comes next? NATO has what it calls an "open door policy" on new members -- any European country can request to join, so long as they meet certain criteria and all existing members agree.

A country does not technically "apply" to join; Article 10 of its founding treaty states that, once a nation has expressed interest, the existing member states "may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty ... to accede."

NATO diplomats told Reuters that ratification of new members could take a year, as the legislatures of all 30 current members must approve new applicants.

Both Finland and Sweden already meet many of the requirements for membership, which include having a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; treating minority populations fairly; committing to resolve conflicts peacefully; the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and committing to democratic civil-military relations and institutions.

The process may not be without hurdles; Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday he was not looking at both countries joining NATO "positively," accusing them of housing Kurdish "terrorist organizations."

In the meantime, both countries will have to rely on its current allies and partners for security guarantees, rather than Article 5 -- the clause which states an attack against one NATO nation is an attack against all, and which triggers a collective response in that event.

Sweden and Finland have received assurances of support from the United States and Germany should they come under attack, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed mutual security agreements with his Finnish and Swedish counterparts last week.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will cause European growth to slow and inflation to rise at a faster than expected rate, according to the latest EU Commission economic forecasts.

It says that the war has caused commodity prices to rise, disrupted supply chains and increased uncertainty.

The EU predicts that eurozone GDP will increase by 2.7% this year and 2.3% in 2023. That compares to previous forecasts of 4% and 2.8%.

The EU Commission also says inflation in the eurozone is projected to increase to 6.1% in 2022. It is then predicting the rate to drop off sharply to 2.7% in 2023.

In its winter forecasts, the EU was forecasting inflation of 3.5% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2023.

The EU admitted that its forecasts were heavily dependent on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and it warned of further risks to energy prices, food prices and supply chains.

It also says that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is leading to an economic decoupling of the EU from Russia, with consequences that are difficult to fully comprehend at this stage.

European Union member states are still trying to resolve some outstanding issues, but will likely agree on a sixth sanctions package against Russia in “the coming days,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Monday.

Speaking ahead of an EU-Canada Joint Ministerial Committee meeting in Brussels, Baerbock said that “as Germans, we know that this [an oil embargo] is not an easy step.”

There remained some areas which needed to be resolved and “that will not happen today,” Baerbock added.

The German foreign minister said she was “confident” that EU member states would come to an agreement “in the coming days.”

Some background: The EU has been ratcheting up its economic action against Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine. 

Earlier on Monday, the foreign ministers of Austria and Estonia spoke about the prospect of an upcoming sixth EU sanctions package against Russia, with Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg saying he is “confident” that the package will be “done in the next days.”

As fighting rages on in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukrainian forces say they are making headway in the northeastern Kharkiv region, and one unit says it has reached the frontier with Russia.

Meanwhile, two Nordic nations may soon be applying to join NATO -- ditching longstanding neutrality and ignoring warnings from Moscow. Russia responded to the news with fury.

"They should not have any illusions that we will simply put up with this," Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Monday, according to state news agency TASS. Ryabkov called the decision from both states, "another serious mistake with far-reaching consequences."  

Here are the latest developments:

Upon arriving in Tbilisi, Georgia's capital, for the first time since the pandemic began, I dropped my bag off at my Airbnb, strolled out and noticed the words "F**k Putin" graffitied in English on my building. A few meters away, a similar sentiment was scrawled in Russian and not far from that, my friend pointed to the same phrase painted on the wall in Georgia's distinctive alphabet.

Reminders of the war are everywhere and some Georgians, I was told numbering 3,000, are fighting in Ukraine -- and at least nine have been killed. A Russian invasion of Georgia of another kind is already under way as thousands of Russians have fled to Tbilisi since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Some may be there because of their anti-Putin views, but most of my Georgian contacts told me the Russians were there because they simply wanted to be able to spend their money.

Tensions between Georgians and Russians in Tbilisi are high at times. Georgia, which, like Ukraine, seeks to join NATO and the EU, is a country where a real Russian invasion is not an abstract fear, but a very recent reality. In 2008, a brief war solidified Russia's control over the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That war ended only when Putin decided he'd gotten what he wanted -- control of those two regions while demonstrating Russia's strength to Georgia.

Read the full story here.

Sweden's government has officially informed the country's King and crown princess about its NATO application process.

"Today, the Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs met at the Royal Palace where the government informed about current foreign and security policy issues," Foreign Minister Ann Linde said Monday said on her verified Twitter account.

Linde also reiterated that the Swedish government’s intent is to seek NATO membership.

Some background: On Sunday, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced her party’s support for the country to join NATO, and Finland's government said that it also intends to join the alliance, ignoring warnings on doing so from Moscow.

On Monday, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called Finland and Sweden potential membership of NATO a “mistake” with “far-reaching consequences.”

McDonald’s announced Monday that it is selling its Russia business, saying the “humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, and the precipitating unpredictable operating environment, have led McDonald's to conclude that continued ownership of the business in Russia is no longer tenable, nor is it consistent with McDonald's values.”

But after temporarily shutting down more than 800 restaurants in Russia, McDonald’s has decided to leave the country altogether, according to a release.

As part of the decision, the chain is pursuing the sale of its entire portfolio of McDonald's restaurants in Russia to a local buyer.

These measures include ensuring that employees of McDonald's Russia continue to be paid, as well as have future employment.

Some background: McDonald's announced in a statement last month that the closure of restaurants in Russia and Ukraine had cost the company $127 million last quarter.

McDonald's had continued to pay its 62,000 staff in Russia despite ceasing operations. Those staff costs, plus payments for leases and supplies, cost the company $27 million.

The other $100 million was from food and other items it will have to get rid of.

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Russian "occupying forces" are moving quickly to clear debris from areas they bombed during the weeks-long offensive against Mariupol, according to Ukrainian officials.

Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the city's mayor, said the Russians had begun "dismantling the debris" in hospital No. 3, which was heavily bombed in March. Video of the aftermath of the bombing showed heavily pregnant women being taken from the hospital; at least one later died.

The adviser said the Russians were also trying to clear and reopen the port, but that a sunken ship still blocked the entrance to the new port.

Like other Ukrainian officials, Andriushchenko is not in Mariupol but says he receives information and video from residents.

Not enough water: He said many basements were still flooded in the city because of damage to the water pipes and drinking water is mostly inaccessible. At the weekend, Andriushchenko posted video of a long line of people waiting for water from tankers. "There are huge queues at the bottling points, but there is not enough water for everyone," he said.  

He said efforts to reconnect the electricity supply had resulted in short-circuits and fires.

Andriushchenko said there was still a high mortality rate in Mariupol even though, beyond the besieged Azovstal plant, the Mariupol area is quiet.

The new Russian-backed administration in the city has said little about its plans for reviving the city, where thousands of buildings have been destroyed and damaged, and where 100,000 people still live.

Civilian casualties "in the thousands": United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet last week said her office continues to investigate allegations of violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law in Ukraine, "many of which may amount to war crimes."

Speaking from Vienna during a Human Rights Council special session on Ukraine, Bachelet said her office estimates "the civilian death toll in Mariupol to lay in the thousands" and that only with time "the true scale" of alleged atrocities will become clear. She said in areas of intense hostilities, such as Mariupol, it has been difficult for her team to get access and collect information.

Some background: Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff said Russia continues massive artillery and air strikes to block and destroy units trapped at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.

Several hundred wounded soldiers are trapped at the plant.

In his daily video message late Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the government continues "very complicated and delicate negotiations to save our people from Mariupol, from Azovstal."

Ukraine's State Border Service says Russian troops opened fire across the frontier in the Sumy region on Monday, adding that "border guards fought enemy saboteurs" who tried to enter Ukrainian territory from the village of Lokot.

Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine lies 30 miles (48 kilometers) from the border with Russia, and Sumy was one of the first cities to be attacked in the Russian invasion. 

The State Border Service claimed the Russians had "fired mortars, grenade launchers, machine guns and automatic rifles. Border guards fought the saboteurs and forced them to retreat beyond the state border."

After several weeks of quiet, the border villages of Sumy have come under fire in recent days, and local authorities say the Russians have used both air strikes and artillery.

Some background: Analysts say the Russian attacks on Sumy and also across the international border into the Chernihiv region are likely intended to tie down Ukrainian units that might otherwise be deployed to the main front lines in Donbas.