May 23, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

The Biden Administration is in the early stages of potentially sending special operations forces (SOF) into Ukraine for the very limited mission of helping guard the US Embassy in Kyiv, according to several US officials. The idea of using SOF is in very preliminary stages and has not yet been presented to President Joe Biden for a decision, the sources said.

The embassy was re-opened last week after being closed for about three months.

For now, the embassy and its limited number of personnel are protected by State Department diplomatic security officials. The discussion centers around whether an increase in security is needed if the number of personnel increase, and whether SOF is best equipped to fulfill those requirements. 

US Marines typically guard US embassies around the world but in Kyiv, for now, there is a general agreement that the typical Marine Corps embassy guard personnel may not be suited to the uncertain security picture in Ukraine without additional forces, officials say.

The US doesn’t believe Russia would overtly attack the Embassy. But the concern is that Russia air defenses or missiles could inadvertently target the compound and the situation could dramatically escalate the officials say. US officials say Russia has a thorough understanding on an official basis that the US uses military personnel to guard its embassies around the world and any presence should not be viewed as escalatory. Still an introduction of US forces into Ukraine could raise concerns that it could lead to a perception of US escalation since President Biden has been adamant that US ground troops will not fight in Ukraine. 

The concern is if special operations forces go into Ukraine then the US must be able to provide a rapid means of getting them and embassy personnel out of Ukraine in a crisis. Currently the only options are vehicle or rail transport to the border.

For now, there is no appetite at the Pentagon to provide air support such as helicopters or fixed wing transport. If that was done, it could rapidly escalate the US military footprint because of the need to then provide potential rescue and reconnaissance forces if a US pilot was to go down.

The WSJ first reported that special operations forces are being considered for embassy security.

Dmytro Orlov, the mayor of the southeastern Ukrainian city of Enerhodar, claimed Monday that a column of vehicles leaving Russian-held territory had been blocked by Russian forces. 

CNN could not immediately verify Orlov's statement. Orlov said the vehicles were heading on the route from Zaporizhzhia, a Ukrainian government-held city that has been a destination for civilians fleeing Russian-held parts of southeastern Ukraine.

The Russian economy is "withstanding the impact of sanctions," President Vladimir Putin said Monday, despite a gloomy economic outlook for the country following the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

"Despite all the difficulties, the Russian economy is withstanding the impact of the sanctions, and withstanding it quite well," Putin said in a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi. "This is according to all the main macroeconomic indicators."

"Yes, it's not easy. Everything that happens requires special attention from the economic bloc of the government. On the whole, these efforts are having a positive effect," he added.

Russia's Central Bank said in late April the Russian economy is expected to shrink by 8 to 10% in 2022, noting a decline in economic activity in March after the imposition of international sanctions on Russia. Earlier the same month, the World Bank predicted that Russian GDP would shrink by 11.2% in 2022.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin welcomed more than 40 countries to the second Ukraine Contact Group meeting, held virtually, on May 23, almost three months to the day since the war in Ukraine began.

Austin thanked the defense ministers from the other 40 nations for attending and highlighted the progress made since the first contact group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany last month, spotlighting Australia, Canada and the UK for military equipment they have provided to Ukraine since that meeting.

Since last month’s contact group meeting, Australia and Canada “committed to providing M777 Howitzers, and in just four weeks, all those systems have been delivered to the Ukrainians,” Austin said. The UK also “delivered brimstone missiles and a new short-range defense system,” and “many countries have pushed hard to stand up important new training missions, and we’ve watched these efforts make a real difference in real time,” he added. 

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, the deputy commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces and Ukraine’s defense intelligence representative joined the virtual meeting. Four new countries also joined the meeting who were not in attendance at Ramstein last month: Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Colombia, Ireland and Kosovo. 

Austin said he knows the other defense ministers on the call “understand the threat that Russian aggression poses to European security and to the rules-based international order that keeps us all secure.”

Today’s contact group meeting will “begin with presentations by Ukraine and US military leadership on the situation on the ground,” Laura Cooper, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia, said. Session one will “begin with a battlefield update on the current fight, how Ukraine is leveraging international donations, and Ukraine’s immediate combat requirements,” she added. 

Session two of the meeting will focus on “participating ministers” who “will announce progress made on donations,” to Ukraine, and session three will focus “on capabilities and coordination with a review of how we are meeting Ukraine’s priority requirements and overview of the international deconfliction and coordination cell and updates by ministers,” Cooper added.

The world faces a “perfect storm within a perfect storm” when it comes to the food crisis, according to the head of the UN World Food Programme, David Beasley.

There are 49 million people in 43 countries who are “knocking on famine’s door” and the world would face famine, destabilization and mass migration if we don’t get ahead of the problem, he said while speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Beasley stressed that “there are enough leaders in Davos this week to end world hunger.”

As the war in Ukraine rages on, up to 100 people are being killed every day in fighting in the east of the country, where Russia has centered its military efforts in recent weeks, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

Meanwhile, Russia has "likely suffered a similar death toll" in the first three months of its invasion to that of the Soviet Union during its nine years of war in Afghanistan, the UK Ministry of Defence said Monday.

Here are today's latest developments:

Russian soldier gets life sentence in first war crimes trial: A court in Kyiv has found 21-year-old Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarin guilty of war crimes and sentenced him to life in prison. Shishimarin, who pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian, is the first soldier to be sentenced for war crimes since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Poland ends energy relationship with Russia: Poland's government has terminated a 30-year-old agreement with Russia over gas supplies and infrastructure, the country's climate minister, Anna Moskwa announced Monday. The agreement included the supply of gas via the Yamal pipeline and the construction and maintenance of infrastructure related to the transit of gas through Poland.

Up to 100 people killed daily in eastern Ukraine, president says: Zelensky said as many as 100 people are dying every day in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Zelensky made the comment Sunday while speaking to press alongside Polish President Andrzej Duda. He was responding to a question about an online petition to allow men of conscription age -- between the ages of 18 and 60 -- to leave Ukraine. "Today, from 50 to 100 people could be killed here in the most complicated area, in the east of our country," Zelensky said.

Russian death toll in Ukraine "likely similar" to Soviet war in Afghanistan, says UK: Russia has "likely suffered a similar death toll" in the first three months of its invasion of Ukraine to that of the Soviet Union during its nine years of war in Afghanistan, the UK Ministry of Defence said Monday. "A combination of poor low-level tactics, limited air cover, a lack of flexibility, and a command approach which is prepared to reinforce failure and repeated mistakes has led to this high casualty rate, which continues to rise in the Donbas offensive," the ministry said in an intelligence update.

More than 6.5 million have fled Ukraine, says UN: At least 6.5 million people have left Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, according to the latest United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data. 

Ukrainian presidential adviser rules out ceasefire or concessions: Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, has ruled out a ceasefire with Russia and said Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding territory. "The war will not stop (after any concessions). It will just be put on pause for some time,” he told Reuters in an interview on Saturday. Podolyak said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would hit back harder after any break in fighting.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called the rebuilding of his country after the war with Russia a “huge economic opportunity,” in an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“We will destroy our neighbor and rebuild entire cities and industries,” in the largest rebuilding effort since the World War II, he pledged. Zelensky also outlined a plan which will offer companies to take “patronage” of rebuilding different areas in Ukraine.

“We are offering a historical opportunity” he said, and urged the global community to assist in the effort. “Post-war rebuilding could be fast and efficient,” the President said, adding it will “attract the best.”

Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), said Monday that a tribunal was being readied for Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Russian state news agencies reported. 

According to Russian state news agency RIA-Novosti, Pushilin said the Ukrainian prisoners are now on the territory of the DPR, a Russian-backed separatist territory in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, and that documents were being prepared for a tribunal.

Mariupol fell under complete Russian control last week with the surrender of Azovstal, the last bastion of Ukrainians defending the city. It is unclear how many Ukrainian soldiers would face a potential tribunal. The Russian military has claimed that over 2,000 Ukrainian service members surrendered at the vast steel works.  

In a separate news item, RIA reported Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rudenko as saying Russia was open to the possibility of discussing the exchange of Azovstal prisoners with Ukraine.

At least 6.5 million people have fled Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion in late February, according to the latest United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data.  

In addition, more than 8 million people -- nearly one in five of Ukraine’s pre-war population -- are internally displaced after having been forced to flee their homes, according to the latest report by the International Organization for Migration. 

A projected 8.3 million refugees are expected to flee Ukraine, the UNHCR said in late April.