As Russian forces close in on the city of Lysychansk, Ukrainian military commanders have an unenviable choice. They can defend the city, block by block, against vastly superior firepower -- or they can withdraw to take up new defensive positions further west.
Defending the city would inevitably mean heavy casualties among both soldiers and the thousands of civilians who are still sheltering there. The Russian bombardment of the city -- like that of neighboring Severodonetsk -- has been largely indiscriminate.
Additionally, the resupply corridor along the T1302 highway to Bakhmut might be cut off, leaving Ukrainian troops surrounded.
In some places, Russian units advancing from the south are within five kilometers (three miles) of the highway. While other resupply routes are available, they would be difficult and vulnerable. The Institute for the Study of War, in its latest assessment, says; "Russian forces will likely continue to regroup and intensify operations in the area between Bakhmut and Lysychansk to advance toward Lysychansk from an additional axis, sever Ukrainian supply lines, and attempt to consolidate control of the entire Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days."
On the other hand, one advantage of staying and fighting in Lysychansk is that it is on higher ground than surrounding areas, and Ukrainian forces would likely to be able to hold back and inflict damage on Russian units for some time -- perhaps weeks. Lysychansk would potentially become another Mariupol. By sucking in Russian units, the city's defenders would probably relieve the pressure on other fronts, such as around Sloviansk.
The dilemma for the Ukrainian military is an urgent one. As the pocket in Luhansk and Donetsk regions that they defend shrinks, the option of a tactical withdrawal to new lines of defense may not last long.