June 27, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

Before Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin stood down on Saturday, there was outreach to Ukrainian officials from allies on a number of different levels, cautioning them to resist taking advantage of the chaos to strike inside Russia, according to a Western official.

The concern was that Ukraine and the West would be seen as helping Prigozhin and threatening Russian sovereignty.

"It's an internal Russian matter," the official said the Ukrainian officials were told, echoing what US and other Western officials have said publicly.

"Ukrainians were being cautioned by allies not to provoke the situation. Make hay of opportunities on Ukrainian territory but don't get drawn into internal matters or strike at offensive military assets inside of Russia," the official said.

In the war with Russia, Ukraine is suspected of carrying out a growing number of covert cross-border attacks and sabotage on Russian military facilities and even a drone strike on the Kremlin. Ukrainian forces have shelled the Russian Belgorod region, near the border between the countries.

US intelligence officials were able to gather an extremely detailed and accurate picture of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans leading up to his short-lived rebellion, including where and how Wagner was planning to advance, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

But the intelligence was so closely held that it was shared only with select allies, including senior British officials, and not at the broader NATO level, these sources said.

It was not clear exactly when Prigozhin would act, the sources said. But he appears to have decided to move forward with his plan following a June 10 declaration by Russia’s Ministry of Defense that all private military companies, including Wagner, would be forced to sign contracts with Russia’s military beginning in July and essentially be absorbed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The intelligence was so secret that within the US, it was briefed only to the most senior administration officials as well as the Gang of Eight members of Congress, who have access to the most sensitive intelligence matters.

The secrecy surrounding the intelligence was why some senior European officials and even senior officials across the US government were caught off guard by Prigozhin’s attack on Friday, and the speed with which Wagner forces marched into Rostov-on-Don and up toward Moscow into Saturday morning, the sources said.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday thanked the Wagner Group fighters who made the "right decision" and halted their advance — then offered them three options for what to do next.

"I thank those soldiers and commanders of the Wagner Group who made the only right decision — they did not go for fratricidal bloodshed, they stopped at the last line," Putin said in an address to the nation.

He also said those fighters would have the "opportunity to continue serving Russia by entering into a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other law enforcement agencies, or to return to your family and friends."

He also gave a third choice.

Putin did not mention Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin by name during the five-minute speech. 

Prigozhin broke his silence earlier Monday in an audio message — his first since allegedly agreeing to leave Russia for Belarus in a deal to end the insurrection. Belarusian officials said they cannot confirm if Prigozhin arrived in the country.

President Joe Biden on Monday sought to distance the United States from the weekend rebellion in Russia, insisting in his first public remarks since the episode that the West had nothing to do with the mutiny.

Speaking from the White House, Biden suggested it was too early to say how the situation would unfold going forward. And he said he may speak again with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to coordinate their response after conferring in a phone call Sunday.

Biden’s statement reflected a carefully calibrated American response to the brief uprising by the Wagner Group that amounted to the biggest threat in years to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Over the weekend, Biden remained silent on the events unfolding in Russia. He consulted with European allies by telephone on Saturday before traveling to Camp David with his national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

In his remarks Monday, Biden laid out the thinking behind his approach, which some Republicans have criticized as overly cautious.

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