September 7, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

Western officials believe Russia has already lost the war because it failed in its primary aim of subjugating Ukraine, arguing that Ukraine's battlefield progress is not a measure of its overall success.

Speaking in a briefing on Wednesday, the officials conceded that Ukraine’s progress had been incremental and slower than anticipated two months ago, due to Russia’s well-prepared defenses, but said that Moscow had already lost regardless of battles over territory.

“This could be a very long struggle over territory, but in terms of the war and what Russia was looking to achieve, Russia has lost and Russia is a diminished power and is on a diminishing trajectory,” one official said. 

“This notion that somehow Russia can win even if it retains the territory that it’s got, and that is victory, is insane when Russia has strengthened NATO, has grown it with the likes of Finland and Sweden, has put Ukraine on a path to joining NATO, and has put Ukraine on a path to potentially joining the EU,” the official added. 

“I think if you’re Putin, you’re basically gambling that Donald Trump wins the next election and that is quite a long phase. It’s a long way away. In the meantime, the Prigozhin mutiny wouldn’t have happened if the war was going well in Ukraine,” another official said.

Some context: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted Saturday that Kyiv's counteroffensive is moving forward, after troops made some headway in its campaign to recapture territory seized by Russia.

On Friday, Ukrainian forces said they had penetrated the “first line” of Russian strongholds in the Zaporizhzhia region, in a sign that Kyiv is edging closer to Moscow’s sprawling network of fortified trenches along the southern front.

Overall, Ukrainian gains have been hard won after its counteroffensive formally got underway in mid-June. There have been no captures of major settlements as Kyiv's troops encounter well-defended Russian lines.

Russian-appointed officials in occupied Zaporizhzhia say there has been another Ukrainian drone attack on Enerhodar, the city adjacent to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Yevgeniy Balitskiy, acting governor of occupied Zaporizhzhia, said on Telegram “several enemy drones attacked an apartment building” early Thursday, adding:

Separately, Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Russian-installed Zaporizhzhia military-civilian administration, said that “copter-type UAVs” had been used.

Rogov said one drone was eliminated in the city's park of culture and recreation, Rogov said.

Some context: At the end of August, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence claimed a drone attack had caused an explosion at a Russian base in Enerhodar.

“As a result of the operation of the local resistance movement coordinated by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, an improvised 'barracks' of the Russian Guard unit 'Akhmat-1' was damaged”, it said August 28. Akhmat-1 is a Chechen unit.

Earlier that month, Ukrainian Defense intelligence claimed further sabotage attacks in Enerhodar. It said there had been an explosion at a meeting of the chiefs of the occupation police on August 18, and another at the local headquarters of the Russian Federal Security Service.

Ukraine is “slowly gaining ground” in its counteroffensive despite difficult fighting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday.

Speaking to members of the European Parliament, Stoltenberg said support from NATO allies helped to launch the Ukrainian counteroffensive which is now beginning to bear fruit.

His remarks come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent out a strong message last week regarding Ukraine’s progress, tweeting: "No matter what anyone says, we are advancing, and that is the most important thing. We are on the move."

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials are cautiously optimistic that the second line of Russian defensive fortifications on the southern front may be easier to penetrate than the first.

Geolocated video in recent days indicates Ukrainian units have made limited progress beyond the village of Robotyne, as they seek to expand the territory in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region they reclaimed in August.

Social media videos geolocated by CNN show a drone attack Thursday close to Russia's Southern Military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.

The explosion took place less than a kilometer from the military's building on Budonnovskiy Prospekt in the southwestern city.

In a Telegram post earlier, Rostov region Gov. Vasily Golubev said one person was injured and several cars were damaged after Russian air defenses intercepted two drones over the city.

An "emergency mode" was enacted around the crash site and nearly 100 residents were offered alternative temporary accommodation, Golubev said.

Kyiv did not make any immediate comment.

Remember: Ukraine has increasingly been emboldened to hit strategic targets inside Russia through the air in recent weeks, even as it suffers assaults on its own cities, setting up a new phase of the conflict defined by Kyiv’s apparent efforts to wear down domestic Russian support for the war.

Russia's deputy foreign minister on Thursday accused the United States of committing "a criminal act" following Washington's pledge to supply depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine for the first time, Russian state media reported.

The ammunition is part of $1 billion in new US support for Ukraine announced Wednesday.  The munitions, which can be fired from the US-made Abrams tanks that are expected to arrive in Ukraine this fall, are mildly radioactive because they are made from dense metal — a byproduct from fuel production for nuclear power plants.

Speaking after a seminar on nuclear non-proliferation Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed the US' move was "a reflection of Washington's outrageous disregard for the environmental consequences of using these kind of munitions in a war zone," state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Some context: According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, depleted uranium is used in ammunition designed to pierce armor plating because it becomes sharper on impact with a target. It is “considerably less radioactive than natural uranium,” according to the UN nuclear watchdog.

In March, the United Kingdom's Defense Ministry accused Russia of spreading disinformation after President Vladimir Putin warned London against providing Ukraine with ammunition containing depleted uranium.

“It is a standard component and has nothing to do with nuclear weapons or capabilities. Russia knows this, but is deliberately trying to disinform,” a British defense ministry spokesperson said at the time. “Independent research by scientists from groups such as the Royal Society has assessed that any impact to personal health and the environment from the use of depleted uranium munitions is likely to be low.”

From the moment Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine seemed inevitable, Europe knew it would soon have to ask itself some very complicated questions. 

High among those was whether the continent could wean itself off the Russian gas it had thirstily guzzled for decades — and avoid being at the mercy of President Vladimir Putin should he cut that supply off in response to support for Ukraine. 

For Europe, energy security has always been a trade-off: Cheap, imported energy comes with the risk of dependency on the countries from which it originates. 

In the case of Russia and its natural gas, officials initially speculated that a long, cold winter in 2022-23 could force Europe to temper its punishment of Moscow. After all, developed countries like those in the European Union could not reasonably let their citizens go cold for the sake of Ukraine. 

A combination of luck, planning and Europeans’ support for Ukraine, however, left the energy war — once considered Putin’s ace in the hole — redundant. Europe had an especially mild winter while governments and citizens made a concerted effort to use less gas.

Now for the bad news: Despite these efforts, officials and analysts are fearful that however impressive these advancements have been, Europe’s energy is far from secure in the long term. 

Read the full analysis here.

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un may each have something the other wants — a dangerous combination as far as the US is concerned.

A meeting that may be in the works between the Russian and North Korean autocrats could have an impact on the war in Ukraine, complicate Washington’s repeatedly failed efforts to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear program, and play into the wider geopolitical chess game unfolding in the Pacific in which China is the major player.

Washington has reacted to the possibility of the meeting — which could possibly take place after Kim climbs aboard his armored train headed for the Russian far east — by mocking Putin, warning North Korea and trying to work out what it might mean.

Russia may be looking to Kim to replenish its ammunition and artillery supplies as the war in Ukraine grinds into another bloody winter. Pyongyang is also adept at drone and missile technology.

Kim, meanwhile, knows that Russia is a longtime and sophisticated nuclear power whose expertise could help his own expanding program. It’s also a big oil supplier, and North Korea and Russia are both living under punishing Western sanctions and restrictions on their access to the global market. If they can help each other ease the pain of blockades, they may be able to do business.

Read the full analysis here.

In one of the deadliest attacks in months, a Russian missile landed in the middle of the Ukrainian town of Kostiantynivka, killing 17 people, Ukrainian officials said.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with senior Ukrainian leadership and President Volodymyr Zelensky during his third visit to Kyiv on Wednesday. The visit comes as Ukraine’s counteroffensive enters its fourth month, with both Blinken and Zelensky expressing that it is making process.

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Russian air defenses intercepted drones over the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and the capital Moscow, officials said on Thursday.

In a Telegram post, Rostov Gov. Vasily Golubev said one person was injured and several cars were damaged after one drone fell in the city center and another fell on its western outskirts.

Separately, Russian air defenses intercepted a drone attack near Moscow, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a Telegram post. 

Ukraine did not make any immediate comment.

Reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory have become an almost daily occurrence in recent weeks as Kyiv ramps up its apparent efforts to wear down Russian domestic support for the war.