September 29, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

President Vladimir Putin is set to sign agreements Friday that will absorb into Russia thousands of square miles of Ukrainian territory in what will be the largest forcible annexation of land in Europe since 1945.

The agreements will be signed at a ceremony at the Kremlin, three days after hastily-conducted referendums concluded in the four areas of Ukraine that Moscow will now consider Russian territory.

Putin will deliver a speech and meet with Russian-backed leaders of the four occupied regions, according to the Kremlin.

Ukraine and its western allies have categorically rejected the planned annexation of the four regions – Donetsk, Luhansk and much of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, a swathe of Ukrainian land that contains heavy industry, rich farmland and a critical freshwater conduit for Crimea.

Donetsk and Luhansk are home to two breakaway republics that Moscow has backed since 2014, while Kherson and parts of Zaporizhzhia have been controlled by Russian forces since shortly after the invasion began in late February.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asserted that if the Kremlin presses ahead with annexation, any negotiation with Putin will be impossible.

In all, Russia plans to raise its flag over some 100,000 square kilometers (38,600 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in what is a flagrant breach of international law and after votes dismissed by the great majority of countries, including some friends of Russia like Serbia, as null and void.

While the international community will reject Russia’s plan almost in unison (expect a few outliers like Syria and North Korea), annexation does change the “facts on the ground” and diminishes the prospects for any negotiated settlement.

There’s a huge difference between withdrawing from occupied land (as the Russians did in April when they pulled back from much of northern Ukraine) and giving up areas that has been formally and ceremonially absorbed into the motherland – especially for a leader like Putin who is fixated with a “greater Russia.”

Keep reading here.

Ukrainian forces continue to press closer to the occupied town of Lyman in the eastern Donetsk region, according to a Russian-backed leader there.

The railroad hub fell to Russian forces and their allied militia at the end of May, but the situation has grown "difficult" for the forces trying to hold the territory, said Alexander Petrikin, the pro-Russian head of the city administration.

Ukrainian forces have made gains to the south, west and north of Lyman — with just one road to the east still under control of the pro-Russian groups.

Russia’s two houses of parliament — the State Duma and Federation Council — will consider the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories next week, as EU readies additional sanctions in retaliation for the plan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend a ceremony on Friday where agreements for Russia to take over four Ukrainian territories will be signed, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Thursday. The ceremony will start a legislative process in Moscow to annex Russian-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - a move that would be illegal under international law.

Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, will meet on Oct. 3 and Oct. 4, its chairman, Vyacheslav Volodin, said according to RIA Novosti. The state news agency cited Volodin as saying that the State Duma’s schedule had been adjusted so the deputies could make legislative decisions based on the supposed results of the polls.

The Federation Council, Russia’s upper house, will consider the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories on Oct. 4, Andrey Klishas, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation, said in a Telegram post on Thursday.

Remember: The declared annexation comes after so-called referendums on Ukrainian territory on joining Russia — votes that were not observed by independent monitors and have been widely condemned by western governments as a “sham.”

The EU proposed a new package of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday, targeting "those involved in Russia occupation and illegal annexation of areas of Ukraine,” including “the proxy Russian authorities in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and other Russian individuals who organized and facilitated the sham referenda in these four occupied territories of Ukraine."

With one bag in each hand and another on his back, Denis made his way up a hill on foot after crossing the border from Russia into Georgia.

“I’m just tired. That’s the only thing I feel,” the 27-year-old said as he tried to catch his breath.

Denis had just spent six days on the road, most of them just waiting in line to cross the border. He is one of the hundreds of thousands of Russians enduring a grueling marathon journey to leave their country. 

Though women and children are among those crossing, most are fighting-age men who fear the possibility that they will be drafted to fight the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. According to the Georgian Interior Ministry, at least 10,000 have been coming through the Lars border crossing daily. 

Denis, who did not want to reveal his last name, said he chose to leave because of the uncertainty following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement last week of a “partial mobilization” of citizens – despite his earlier emphasis that the military assault would only be fought by military professionals. Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu said the military will conscript around 300,000 men with previous military experience, to go and fight in Ukraine.

Though the current draft should not apply to him, Denis fears that could change.

“How do I know what will happen in three years’ time? How do I know how long this will take?” he said.

His feeling is shared by many crossing the border into Georgia. They are teachers, doctors, taxi drivers, lawyers and builders – ordinary Russians who have no appetite for war. And although they say they don’t agree with the government, they believe there’s nothing they can do to force Putin to change course. 

They’ve chosen instead to leave their homeland, despite the perilous journey. Denis said he spent days in his car without sufficient access to food and restrooms.

“When you’re there waiting, there is no toilet. You can’t get much to eat because everything is instantly sold out and nobody packed much food either because nobody expected it to take this long,” he said.

Another man CNN spoke to walked for 20 kilometers (12 miles) to get to Georgia, also fueled by concern that the draft might expand.

“It doesn’t apply to me today, but it may apply tomorrow,” the man said, speaking to CNN on the condition that he remain anonymous, because he fears Moscow’s far-reaching hand.

They've been dismissed as a "sham" by Western nations and leaders, but Russia is pressing ahead with its referendum votes by annexing four occupied Ukrainian territories at a ceremony Friday.

Illegal "votes" mean the polls are contrary to international law, yet there are concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use the annexation as a way to frame the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive as an attack on Russia itself and escalate the war.

According to former US ambassador Kurt Volker, Putin will use the annexation to maneuver Russia's future, more aggressive, strategy as one of self-defense.

Though US officials have not seen indications Russia is planning to use nuclear weapons in the near term, they are more concerned about the possibility now than they were six or seven months ago, one official confirmed to CNN this week.

Volker himself is skeptical nuclear weapons would ever be used, given the "devastating" consequences the Russian military would face in response.

Russia never expected the occupied territories referendum to be accepted by the global community, according to the director general of the Russian International Affairs Council.

Andrey Kortunov believes that, given the similar international response to the Crimea referendum in 2014, Moscow is instead looking inwards to generate a positive response from the Russian population and validate their continuation of the conflict.

"Even closest partners and allies of Russia were hesitant to recognize the change of the legal status of Crimea," Kortunov told CNN.

"But I can imagine that in the Kremlin, they count on the patriotic feelings of the Russian population, and they believe that this acceptance of new regions into the Russian Federation would help the leadership to maintain a high approval rating, and also to make the society accept the costs associated with the special military operation."

The Kremlin will host a ceremony on Friday at which agreements will be signed on the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories to the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson told reporters on Thursday.

Dmitry Peskov said the ceremony would take place on Friday at 3 p.m. local time (8 a.m. ET).

Putin will deliver a speech and meet with Russian-backed leaders of the four occupied regions on the sidelines of the ceremony, he added.

Separatist leaders from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics all traveled to Moscow following the announcement of poll results.

The four territories, which together make up around 18% of Ukraine's territory, recently held Moscow-backed "referendums" on joining Russia. These have been widely condemned by Western leaders as a "sham."

Billboards proclaiming "Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson - Russia!" and giant video screens have been set up on Red Square, according to Reuters on Thursday.

Members of the lower house of the Russian parliament have also received invitations to Friday’s ceremony at the Kremlin, state news agency RIA Novosti reported, citing a post by Denis Parfyonov, a Communist Party deputy, on his Telegram channel.

Some context: "Votes" for referendums on joining Russia, held in the four occupied areas from Friday to Tuesday, are contrary to international law and have been universally dismissed as "a sham" by Ukraine and Western nations, including US President Joe Biden.

Counts cited in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia ranged from 87.05% approval to claims of nearly universal verdicts, yet such figures stand in stark contrast to reality. According to a CNN poll of Ukrainians in February, just before Russia’s invasion, no region in the country had more than one in five people supporting Ukrainian unification with Russia.

CNN’s Jo Shelley contributed reporting to this post.

Finland will close its borders to Russian tourists from Friday midnight local time (5 p.m. ET) until further notice amid a record number of Russians crossing into the country following Moscow's partial mobilization order, the government confirmed Thursday.

On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the immediate "partial mobilization" of citizens for its war in Ukraine.

Since then, there has been an exodus of citizens fleeing the country and thousands of Russians have entered neighboring Finland.

"The resolution aims to stop tourism and related transit from Russia altogether. It will drastically limit the capacity to receive visa applications in Russia," the ministry added.

"The resolution will not prevent travelling when it is deemed necessary for humanitarian reasons, for national interests or for meeting Finland’s international obligations."

Some context: The announcement comes after Helsinki announced Wednesday it would "significantly" restrict the right of Russian tourists to enter the country or as transit when travelling to other parts of the Schengen area.

Finland’s border guard also said Wednesday that more than 50,000 Russians have entered Finland via the land border since September 21.

Last weekend also saw a record number of Russians entering Finland via its land border, with 16,886 Russians arriving in total over Saturday and Sunday, according to the border guard’s head of international affairs, Matti Pitkaniitty.

Information gathered on the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea suggest "the result of deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage," the North Atlantic Council said Thursday.

Damage to the pipelines is of "deep concern," the council said in a statement.

More context: Earlier Thursday, Germany's ambassador to the UK said there was a "very strong indication" the pipeline leaks were acts of sabotage. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also labelled the leaks "apparent sabotage" in a tweet Tuesday.

European security officials observed Russian navy ships in the vicinity of leaks on Monday and Tuesday, according to Western intelligence officials and one other source. Senior Western officials have stopped short of attributing the attack to Russia or any nation.

What the Kremlin is saying: A Russian government spokesperson said Thursday that the leaks may have been the result of a "terrorist attack."

"The unprecedented nature of this event, it seems that this is a terrorist attack, possibly at the state level," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said during a daily call with journalists. 

Asked about CNN's report on Russian submarines seen in the area of the Nord Stream disruptions, Peskov said: “This is the Baltic sea. There were far more aircraft, floating and other marine vehicles that belong to NATO countries seen there."

CNN's Anna Chernova, Allegra Goodwin and Radina Gigova contributed reporting to this post.

A fourth leak in the Nord Stream pipelines was confirmed by Sweden's coast guard on Thursday.

"There are currently two gas leaks in Swedish waters, a larger leak above North Stream 1, and a smaller leak above North Stream 2. Two leaks have also been reported in Danish waters," Sweden’s coast guard said in a statement.

The coast guard added that one of its vessels near the pair of leaks in its home seas was reporting a "constant flow" of gas to the surface.

The confirmation comes after Germany's ambassador to the UK, Miguel Berger, said earlier Thursday that a fourth leak had been discovered.

The leaks in Swedish waters are approximately 1.8 kilometers (1 nautical mile or 1.1 miles) apart, with the distance from the smaller Swedish leak to the closest Danish leak being 4.6 kilometers (2.6 nautical miles), the coast guard said.

The statement concluded by specifying that the coast guard’s vessel is in possession of a remotely operated vehicle but not a submarine, which the Swedish Coast Guard said it neither owns nor operates.