January 31, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

A Ukraine-European Union summit will take place in Kyiv on Friday, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. However, he provided no details on who would attend.

The fact that the summit will be held in Kyiv is a "powerful signal to both partners and enemies," he said at a government meeting.

A "prolonged stalemate" in Moscow's conflict with Ukraine “would only benefit Russia,” said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, according to a cabinet meeting readout released Tuesday.

Sunak said he reached this conclusion after reviewing the UK’s approach to the conflict since becoming prime minister in October last year, adding that this led him to decide that there was an “opportunity to accelerate" British support for Ukraine.

This would give Kyiv the "best chance of success and make the most of the window of opportunity where Russian forces were on the back foot,” he said, according to the readout. 

This new UK strategy to accelerate support would include greater diplomatic efforts and planning for how to rebuild after the conflict, the prime minister added, according to the readout. 

Ukraine is expecting to receive 120 to 140 modern Western fighting tanks in a "first wave" of deliveries from 12 countries, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday. 

Kuleba on Tuesday also renewed calls for fighter jets, saying Ukraine's military "must receive all the types of weapons they need to defend and restore the territorial integrity of our country."

Russia is unlikely to see strategic success in any potential offensive in Ukraine this spring due to limited support on force ratios, equipment and logistics, according to Western officials speaking to media on background.

These limitations might not prevent Russia “from trying to launch an offensive,” but their “ability to change the course of the conflict at the moment is constrained,” the officials said.

Moscow is struggling to replace its losses, the officials added.

Russia and Ukraine were fundamentally in "a race" as to "who can maintain the supply of weapons,” they said.

Meanwhile, the officials expressed doubt in Russia using its neighboring ally Belarus to launch an offensive in the coming months. 

“Belarus is providing a useful training ground for Russian forces where they can outsource for training and then siphon them back round into the front line in Ukraine,” the officials said. “We do see Russian forces in Belarus. We don't see them deployed to the border, and at the moment, they don't have the kind of capability in the logistics to project and threaten Kyiv.”

But the Russian troops presence does prompt Ukraine from stationing its troops in that direction to "offset that potential risk," the officials said, even though they stressed that it is "hugely unlikely" that Belarus "will be an axis of advance in the next several months.”

Russia is violating a key nuclear arms control agreement with the United States and continuing to refuse to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities, a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday.

"Russia has also failed to comply with the New START Treaty obligation to convene a session of the Bilateral Consultative Commission in accordance with the treaty-mandated timeline," the spokesperson added.

Under the New START treaty — the only agreement left regulating the world's two largest nuclear arsenals — Washington and Moscow are permitted to conduct inspections of each other's weapons sites, but due to the Covid-19 pandemic, inspections have been halted since 2020.

A session of the Bilateral Consultative Commission on the treaty was slated to meet in Egypt in late November but was abruptly called off. The US has blamed Russia for this postponement, with a State Department spokesperson saying the decision was made "unilaterally" by Russia.

The treaty puts limits on the number of deployed intercontinental-range nuclear weapons that both the US and Russia can have. It was last extended in early 2021 for five years, meaning the two sides will soon need to begin negotiating on another arms control agreement.

The State Department says Russia can return to full compliance, if they "allow inspection activities on its territory, just as it did for years under the New START Treaty" and also scheduling a session of the commission.

On Monday, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the last remaining element of the bilateral nuclear arms control treaty with the United States could expire in three years without a replacement. 

Asked if Moscow could envisage there being no nuclear arms control agreement between the two nations when the extension of the 2011 New START Treaty comes to an end after 2026, Ryabkov told the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti on Monday: "This is a very possible scenario."

The statement comes as Russia continues its war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin in December acknowledged that the conflict is “going to take a while,” as he also warned of the “increasing” threat of nuclear war. And without categorically ruling out the first use of nuclear weapons, Putin said he viewed the Russian nuclear arsenal as a deterrent rather than a provocation.

Ukraine's foreign minister renewed calls for fighter jets on Tuesday.

"The [Ukraine] Armed Forces must receive all the types of weapons they need to defend and restore the territorial integrity of our country," Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a briefing.

Kuleba said Ukraine needs fighter jets and long-range missiles not to escalate but rather to act as a deterrence and defense against Russia's continued war in Ukraine:

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, also called for more weapons. 

Podolyak tweeted Tuesday addressing a belief he said some EU representatives have that Kyiv shouldn't be given weapons due to a fear the war will spread to Europe. The Ukrainian official said war is "already in the center of Europe" and Russia "kills people in the most anti-human way." He also warned that if Ukraine does not get weapons the war will spread to the EU because Russia "won't stop the expansion."

What Western nations are saying about Kyiv's requests: The UK said Tuesday it believes it's "not practical" to send its fighter jets to Ukraine. The fighter jets are "extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly," a Downing Street spokesperson told journalists.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that although France had not received any request from Ukraine to send fighter jets, “nothing is off limits in principle.”

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden responded "no," when asked by a reporter if he would send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. 

Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has also ruled out sending fighter jets to Ukraine, according to an interview with German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung on Friday. "This is out of the question," Pistorius was quoted as saying.

France will send an additional 12 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, on top of the 18 howitzers Paris has already delivered to Kyiv, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced on Tuesday.  

Speaking at a news conference in Paris alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov, Lecornu said that Denmark has also committed to giving 19 French-made howitzers to Ukraine. 

The French minister said another priority was the training of Ukrainian troops and that 2,000 of them would be trained in France by the summer. 

Lecornu also announced a new plan to jointly train Ukrainian soldiers with the Polish military.  

“I can confirm that 150 French soldiers will be going to Poland at the end of February to train battalions in conjunction with Poland,” he said. 

When asked whether France would deliver fighter jets to Ukraine, the defense minister said that there were "no taboos" about sending the airplanes but that each request has to fulfill three criteria: a weapon request must not diminish France’s own defense forces; that the weapons must be useful and useable on the ground; and that they are used for defensive objectives only. 

“We discussed the [air] platform because it's our necessity to make our capabilities stronger to defend our airspace,” said Reznikov. 

“I'm an optimist and I think it will be as soon as possible,” the Ukrainian defense minister said, adding “one year ago when I was in Washington, DC, I asked about stinger [missiles] and the answer was ‘It's impossible, Oleksii!’ and it became possible.” 

The US will likely announce further security assistance for Ukraine "soon," according to White House spokesperson Olivia Dalton.  

"I expect we're going to have more security assistance to announce soon," Dalton told reporters aboard Air Force One. 

Asked about whether the US would send F16 jets to Ukraine, Dalton reiterated President Joe Biden's comments on Monday and pointed to the billions of dollars in aid provided so far.

Biden said "no" when asked by a reporter Monday on whether he would send the jets to Ukraine. His answer comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought fighter jets to help sustain his war effort against Russia. Biden has consistently said the planes aren't on the table, even as he has given aid in other areas, including providing Abrams tanks.

Dalton also emphasized that the US remains in "regular contact" with Ukrainian officials about their needs. 

More on US aid to Ukraine: As of Jan. 19, the United States has committed $26.7 billion to Ukraine in security aid since the beginning of the war nearly a year ago.

The UK said Tuesday it believes it's "not practical" to send its fighter jets to Ukraine. 

The fighter jets are "extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly," a Downing Street spokesperson told journalists Tuesday, adding that given those conditions they “believe it is not practical to send those jets into Ukraine.”

The comments come as Ukrainian officials continue to pressure their Western allies for further resources. 

The spokesperson said the UK is committed to continuing to "discuss with our allies about what we think what is the right approach" when it comes to assisting Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that although France had not received any request from Ukraine to send fighter jets, “nothing is off limits in principle.”

Other nations saying no to jets for Kyiv: On Monday, US President Joe Biden responded "No," when asked by a reporter if he would send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. 

Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has also ruled out sending fighter jets to Ukraine, according to an interview with German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung on Friday. "This is out of the question," Pistorius was quoted as saying.