October 3, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

When Westerners talk about the conflict in Ukraine becoming a “forever war,” they tend to mean it as a bad thing. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, though, it likely is a goal.

When Putin talks of the operation in Ukraine as one of the “decisive battles for the fate of our Motherland,” as he did at this year’s Victory Day parade, he seems to be speaking from the heart — and to the new creed of his regime. He was offering no clear vision of the future, nor even any real hope, just the message that the nation was locked in an existential struggle with a hostile West with no real end in sight.

This sounds like a grim prospect, but from Putin’s perspective, it also has its clear virtues. Of course, the war is a catastrophe for Russia. US government sources suggest Russia may have suffered 120,000 killed and 170,000-180,000 wounded troops.

The economic scarring will take years to heal even when peace has been agreed and sanctions are lifted. 

But it is an opportunity, too. As the forever war becomes the organizing principle of “late Putinism,” it excuses — even demands — the tightening grip of repression Putin needs to maintain his control of the nation. Even the mildest dissent becomes treason, and the massive shift in resources to the defense sector becomes a necessity. 

Read more here: Opinion - Why Putin wants a "forever war"

Ukrainian forces fired cluster munitions at a southwestern Russian border village, damaging several houses and outbuildings, a local Russian official claimed Tuesday.

Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz said there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Bogomaz has reported frequent Ukrainian attacks on the region in recent months, including drone strikes and alleged incursions by saboteurs.

Ukraine did not immediately comment on the allegations Tuesday.

Some context: The US announced it would be sending the controversial munitions to Ukraine on July 8, and they were delivered to the country’s forces about a week later, as CNN first reported. Ukrainians pledged in writing to only use the cluster munitions in “appropriate places” and not in populated areas, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has previously said. 

Cluster munitions scatter “bomblets” across large areas, which has allowed Ukrainian forces to target larger concentrations of Russian forces and equipment with fewer rounds of ammunition.

But the bomblets can also fail to explode on impact and can pose a long-term risk to anyone who encounters them, similar to landmines. The UK, France, Germany and other key US allies have outlawed the munitions under the Convention on Cluster Munitions, but Ukraine, Russia and the United States are not signatories to that international treaty.

Russia's use: Russia has already used the munitions several times in Ukraine, CNN has previously reported, including in densely populated areas.

In March, the United Nations said it had compiled credible reports that Russian forces had used cluster munitions in populated areas at least 24 times. A CNN investigation last year found that the Kremlin fired 11 cluster rockets at Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, during the war’s opening days.

Ukraine said Tuesday it destroyed 29 of 31 drones and one cruise missile launched by Russia overnight.

In a Telegram post, Ukraine's Air Force Command said the targets were destroyed over the Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

The drone attacks came in several waves for more than three hours, Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces said on Tuesday. 

There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

The European Union's support for Ukraine is "permanent," the bloc's foreign policy chief said Monday after top EU officials assembled in Kyiv to discuss the war.

"Our support does not depend on the advances of one day," Josep Borrell told a news conference, according to Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform. "It’s permanent, structured support because we are facing an existential threat for Europe."

Speaking alongside Borrell, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dymytro Kuleba said negotiations on Ukraine's EU membership should begin before the end of the year, adding that Kyiv's accession to the bloc was "just a matter of time."

Germany's foreign minister also said Monday that Ukraine's future "lies in the European Union," and praised Kyiv for its ongoing reforms on conditions set by the EU for membership. They include action on corruption and money laundering, media freedom and protection of minorities. 

Here's what else you need to know:

Ukraine has removed Hungarian Bank OTP from its "international sponsors of war" blacklist after the lender "made a number of commitments regarding its future plans for the Russian market," Kyiv officials said Monday

In a statement, the Ukrainian National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) said its decision followed "discussions that lasted 24/7 for the last few days with the participation of the EU External Action Service."

The NACP added OTP Bank to its blacklist in the spring, citing the lender's continued operations in Russia and recognition of the Moscow-backed breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics in eastern Ukraine. 

At the time, Hungary's foreign minister called the decision "outrageous" and said it would make it difficult for Budapest to enter into negotiations for the European Union’s next round of sanctions against Russia.

The European Union’s support for Ukraine doesn’t depend on one-day battlefield advances, the bloc's foreign affairs chief said Monday.

He emphasized that EU support for Ukraine “does not depend on how the war is going on in the next days or weeks,” adding that “the Ukrainian soldiers are fighting with a lot of courage in front of impressive Russian defense fortifications.” 

According to Borrell, the satellite images show that in some cases, Russian fortifications are “25 kilometers (15.5 miles) deep,” Ukrinform reported. 

The EU’s top diplomat also said that if the partners want Ukraine to be more successful, they must provide it "with better arms, and quicker," Ukrinform added. 

Borrell arrived in Ukraine on Saturday, and since then he has visited the city of Odesa, honored the fallen soldiers in Kyiv and held his first personal meeting with Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Ukrinform said. 

US President Joe Biden said he "fully expects" House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and a majority of Republicans to approve new funding for Ukraine but declined to say whether he'd received any specific assurances on the matter ahead of this week's passage of a stopgap government funding measure.

"We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted. Too many lives are at stake, too many children, too many people," Biden said Monday afternoon during a meeting of his Cabinet.

Yet when pressed by CNN about the precise nature of that commitment, Biden remained silent.

He wouldn't answer whether he'd received any new assurances from McCarthy about taking up new Ukraine funding — or even whether he trusted the Republican speaker.

A day earlier, Biden had told reporters "we just made" a deal on Ukraine with McCarthy, without elaborating. On Monday, the White House similarly declined to clarify the remark. 

Multiple Democratic lawmakers serving on the House Foreign Affairs Committee told CNN on Monday they had no reason to believe that McCarthy had made a fresh commitment to the White House over the weekend on Ukraine funding.

And McCarthy himself denied to reporters he had made any side deals on promising to put Ukraine funding on the floor.

Still, Biden on Monday said it was essential Ukraine funding be approved to demonstrate American commitment to the country's battle against Russia.

Unofficial Telegram channels in Russia say that according to the terms of Yevgeny Prigozhin's will, his assets and control of his business empire have been bequeathed to his 25-year-old son, Pavel.

One of the channels, Port, claims to have obtained a copy of Prigozhin's will and published an image of it.

Prigozhin was killed in a private jet crash in August. The document, said to have been notarized on March 2, purportedly designates Pavel Prigozhin as the sole inheritor of the Wagner founder's extensive assets, including those of the mercenary group

The unofficial publication suggests Pavel Prigozhin filed an application for inheritance on September 8.

Port also claimed that Pavel Prigozhin is set to collect all debts owed to his father, estimating the Russian Defense Ministry owed Prigozhin's business empire as much as $800 million. It is impossible to verify this figure. 

Remember: In June, following Prigozhin's short-lived mutiny, President Vladimir Putin said the Wagner founder's businesses had received 86 billion rubles (or about $850 million) from the defense ministry between May 2022 and May 2023. In addition, Prigozhin's Concord catering company made 80 billion rubles from state contracts to supply food to the Russian army, Putin said at the time.

Telegram channels associated with Wagner have claimed Pavel Prigozhin is actively negotiating the return of Wagner personnel to the combat zone in Ukraine. The claims cannot be verified, and it's unclear whether Wagner fighters would be absorbed into different military structures.

Telegram channel GreyZone, which frequently reported on Wagner and Prigozhin, asserted that Pavel Prigozhin was negotiating with the Russian reserve force Rosgvardia on the return of Wagner fighters to the war in Ukraine.

Rosgvardia received much of Wagner's heavy weaponry after the private military company was disarmed following the mutiny.

CNN cannot independently verify these reports, or the authenticity of the will.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told European Union foreign ministers in KyivMonday he is "confident that Ukraine and the entire free world are capable of winning this confrontation [with Russia]."

"But our victory directly depends on our cooperation: the more strong and principled steps we take together, the sooner this war will end. It will end fairly. It will end with the restoration of our territorial integrity and reliable guarantee of peace for the whole of Europe," Zelensky said.

He described the ministers' presence in Kyiv as a "step towards strengthening Europe ... We need to constantly take new defense and diplomatic, political and integration, economic and sanctions steps that will make our common positions stronger," according to the Presidency's website.

Besides further military aid and joint production of weapons, Ukraine's path to NATO membership and a fresh package of sanctions against Russia were among the important steps to be taken, as well as "the beginning of negotiations this year on Ukraine's membership in the EU," Zelensky added.

In response, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said: "You can be sure of our determination to be by Ukraine's side for as long as it takes."