
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that Russia could seek a phony off-ramp to the Ukraine war that would not produce a durable peace, and would only allow Russian troops to re-group and attack Ukraine again.
"One of the things that you can imagine is the Russians trying to find an off-ramp that would be a phony off-ramp by which I mean, let's have a ceasefire, let's just freeze things in place, get a frozen conflict, never negotiate about the territory that they have seized, and continue to hold. Rest, refit, regroup, re-attack," Blinken said at a Wall Street Journal event on Monday night.
Blinken explained that such a situation could occur if Russia fails in trying to "get the Ukrainian people to throw up their hands," which is possible because of the incredible resilience the Ukrainians have shown.
"This will end, and it will end almost certainly with diplomacy with a negotiation. But what I think we have to see is a just and durable peace. Not a phony peace," Blinken said.
Only about one third of the 300,000 Russian called into active military duty have been fully mobilized, said Blinken, who pointed to the weak capabilities of those who have joined the fighting.
"You get forces that are barely trained, poorly equipped, not winterized, who are thrown into this mix," he said. "And it's terrible. But they're also not, generally speaking, particularly effective units."