February 1, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that his administration is preparing to introduce changes ahead of talks between Kyiv and the European Union scheduled for Friday.

Kyiv is finalizing preparations for the "summit" talks, he added.  

Some context: Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced the "summit" earlier on Tuesday but provided no details on who would attend.

Holding the meeting in Kyiv is a "powerful signal to both partners and enemies," Shmyhal said at a government meeting.

Shmyhal told Politico in an interview published Monday that Ukraine, which was granted EU candidate status in June last year, has an "ambitious plan" to join the bloc within the next two years.

Australia on Wednesday announced additional sanctions against Iran for supplying drones to Russia in its war on Ukraine.

In a news release, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said financial sanctions would be imposed on four Iranian individuals and four entities involved in the production and supply of drones to Moscow.

Russia has used Iranian drones across Ukraine with relentless ferocity, targeting both civilian areas and key infrastructure.

The sanctions are among wider measures announced Wednesday by Australia against individuals in Iran and Myanmar for alleged human rights abuses.

Last month, the United States sanctioned seven Iranian officials tied to an Iranian defense manufacturer that designs and produces drones which have been used by Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Belarus are conducting a further week of joint military drills, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday, the latest sign of cooperation between the neighboring allies amid Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The ministry said the aim of the training is to improve the compatibility of the two militaries and is part of preparation for the joint Union Shield 2023 exercises the two countries will hold in Russia in September.

The announcement of the new drills comes as Russian and Belarussian aviation combat units continue to conduct training missions during joint flight and tactical exercises of the air forces of the two countries.

The exercises are being held at the Ruzhansky training grounds in Belarus about 150 kilometers (93 miles) north of the Ukrainian border.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed a plan to set up joint military training centers with Belarus, according to Agence France-Presse.

In a decree published Tuesday, Putin tasked the defense and foreign ministers to conduct talks with Belarus and sign an agreement to establish the facilities, AFP reported.

The document did not specify where they would be based.

Some context: An announcement by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko in October that his country and Russia would form a joint regional force and carry out exercises set off alarm bells in Kyiv.

The last time Belarus and Russia forces held joint exercises, in February last year, many of those Russian forces went on to cross the Ukrainian border in their ill-fated drive towards the capital.

But Western officials speaking to media on background this week have expressed doubt that Russia could launch an offensive from Belarus in the coming months. 

The Russian troops' presence would, however, prompt Ukraine into stationing its troops in that direction to "offset that potential risk," the officials said, even though they stressed it is "hugely unlikely" that Belarus "will be an axis of advance in the next several months.”

Top Ukrainian officials have in recent days escalated their public lobbying campaign for US-made F-16 fighter jets, arguing they need them urgently to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks.

But that push is being met with skepticism by US and allied officials who say the jets would be impractical, both because they require considerable training and because Russia has extensive anti-aircraft systems that could easily shoot them down.

More puzzling to US officials is why Ukraine has made such a public show of asking for F-16s, when in private the jets are rarely mentioned atop Ukraine’s wish list of weapons.

In private conversations US officials at the Pentagon and the White House have had with Ukrainians over the last several months, fighter jets have not ranked highly on the country’s list of priorities, officials said. Instead, Ukraine has been much more focused on long-range missiles — which the US is reluctant to hand over — as well as more ammunition, air defenses and tanks, which are now on their way after a dramatic public debate among NATO allies.

The Europeans have had a similar experience. French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Monday that while “nothing is off-limits in principle,” neither the Netherlands nor France had received any official requests from Ukraine to send the fighter jets.

Read the full story:

RELATED

After getting tanks, Ukraine escalates public pressure over F-16 fighter jets | CNN Politics

Russian troops are pummeling the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut into what the Donetsk region military administration head Pavlo Kyrylenko called a “total ruin.” 

Two people were killed Tuesday, including a child, Kyrylenko said on Telegram. Four civilians were wounded, he added. 

CNN reported in January that the US and Western officials are urging Ukraine to shift its focus from the brutal, months-long fight in the Bakhmut and prioritize instead a potential offensive in the south, using a different style of fighting that takes advantage of the billions of dollars in new military hardware recently committed by Western allies.

Russia is unlikely to see strategic success in any potential offensive in Ukraine this spring due to limited support on force ratios, equipment and logistics, according to Western officials speaking to media on background.

These limitations might not prevent Russia “from trying to launch an offensive,” but their “ability to change the course of the conflict at the moment is constrained,” the officials said.

Moscow is struggling to replace its losses, the officials added.

“There are severe constraints to their ability to really backfill the losses that they have suffered in Ukraine, which is why you see them reach out to international partners to try to fill the gap," they said.

Russia and Ukraine were fundamentally in "a race" as to "who can maintain the supply of weapons,” they said.

Belarus' role: Meanwhile, the officials expressed doubt in Russia using its neighboring ally Belarus to launch an offensive in the coming months. 

“Belarus is providing a useful training ground for Russian forces where they can outsource for training and then siphon them back round into the front line in Ukraine,” the officials said. “We do see Russian forces in Belarus. We don't see them deployed to the border, and at the moment, they don't have the kind of capability in the logistics to project and threaten Kyiv.”

But the Russian troops' presence would prompt Ukraine into stationing its troops in that direction to "offset that potential risk," the officials said, even though they stressed it is "hugely unlikely" that Belarus "will be an axis of advance in the next several months.”

Russia is violating a key nuclear arms control agreement with the United States and continuing to refuse to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities, a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday.

The US announcement is likely to increase tensions with relations between the two countries in the doldrums as Moscow continues its war on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber rattling during the war has alarmed the US and its allies.

In December, Putin warned of the “increasing” threat of nuclear war, and this month, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, threatened that Russia losing the war could “provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war.”

Read more here.

Russian airborne units have joined Wagner mercenary fighters in the battle for the key eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, according to Maksym Zhorin, a former co-commander of Ukraine's Azov regiment.

Zhorin is not fighting on the battlefield but is in contact with Ukrainian soldiers and helps with supplies. 

"Not only the Wagnerites are fighting in the Bakhmut sector on the Russian side," Zhorin said on his official Telegram channel Tuesday.

"Previously, the assaults were carried out first by convicts, followed by more 'elite' Wagner units, but now airborne units have also joined the fight," he said.

Zhorin described several differences between the Russian forces and Wagner troops.

CNN is unable to independently verify those claims. 

Other Ukrainian military commanders have echoed Zhorin's assessment in recent days, saying that regular Russian military troops are now assisting Wagner private military contractors in the fight for Bakhmut.