February 17, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

It is "unlikely" that Russian forces will meet the goal of capturing the symbolic city of Bakhmut by the one-year anniversary of the invasion, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published Thursday.

Capturing Bakhmut by February 24 "would require a significantly higher rate of Russian advance than anything seen for many months," researchers said.

They had previously assessed that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut "would likely prevent Putin from claiming that Russian forces secured the city on the anniversary of the invasion in an attempt to renew hope in a Russian victory in Ukraine."

The think tank warns that the Kremlin may launch "another series of missile strikes on civilian targets throughout Ukraine to mark the symbolic anniversary as actual military success continues to evade the Russian military."

A Ukrainian military spokesperson said Thursday that Russian forces have reinforced their presence around Bakhmut through different units — air defense, special forces, mechanized infantry and private military contractor group Wagner — but Ukrainian units continue to try to prevent the city from falling into Russian hands.

But "time will tell" how much Russia is able to gain by February 24, Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said Thursday on Ukrainian television. "Our soldiers have been fighting for many months ... For more than seven months, Bakhmut has become an absolute symbol of heroism and courage."

US Vice President Kamala Harris is set to join world leaders at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, where the war in Ukraine will be at the top of the agenda.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will be among those speaking Friday, the first day of the three-day summit, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will appear by videolink.

The conference comes just days ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Catch up on the latest developments:

Russia launched a total of 36 air and sea-based cruise missiles, guided air-to-surface missiles and anti-ship missiles at Ukraine overnight into Thursday, according to Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Zaluzhnyi said 14 cruise missiles and 2 guided air-to-surface missiles were shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The pictures below show a Ukrainian emergency services team securing the remains of an S-300 missile fired by Russian forces in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Friday.

Here's a look:

Russian shelling has killed 5 residents of the Donetsk region and injured 10 others over the last 24 hours, the Donetsk region military governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said in a Facebook post Friday.

The deaths occurred in the area of Horlivka, while the majority of the injuries occurred in the city of Bakhmut, Kyrylenko said.

In Bakhmut, 10 high-rise buildings, 3 private houses and an administrative building were damaged, he said.

Two houses were also damaged by Russian shelling in the city of Lyman.

Some of the heaviest shelling was also reported in the areas of Vuhledar and Soledar, Kyrylenko said.

The Kremlin said Friday that Washington is “unlikely” to welcome the initiative put forward by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko to mediate talks between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“It is unlikely that Washington will respond positively to this initiative,” Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said during a regular press briefing.

Pressed further if the Kremlin is ready for such a meeting in principle, Peskov said: “President Putin is always ready for a dialogue with the president of Belarus, who will be in Moscow today.”

On Thursday, Lukashenko said he wants to host peace talks, calling on CNN to relay the message: “If Biden has a desire, pass on to him through your channels that we are ready to welcome him in Minsk and have a serious talk with him if he wishes for peace in Ukraine. Even Putin will fly to Minsk, and we can meet here, the three of us -- two aggressors and a peace-loving President. Why not?” 

Putin is expected to hold talks with Lukashenko in his Novo-Ogaryovo residence Friday. The two presidents are planning to consider “key issues of further development of Russian-Belarusian relations of strategic partnership and alliance, as well as integration cooperation within the framework of the Union State,” according to the Kremlin.

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US Vice President Kamala Harris is set to join world leaders at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, where the war in Ukraine will be at the top of the agenda.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will be among those speaking Friday, the first day of the three-day summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also appear by videolink.

The conference comes just ahead of the one-year anniversary of of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell are among other top officials in attendance.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a tweet on Friday morning: "It has now been almost one year since Russia brought an imperialistic war to our continent. At the @MunSecConf, let us renew our commitment to a global order governed by the rule of law – not the right of might."

Russian government officials were not invited to this year’s annual MSC.

Three people were killed and seven were injured by Russian shelling in Ukraine's Kherson region on Thursday, the Kherson region military administration said in a statement Friday.

Russian forces attacked Kherson region 76 times over the last 24 hours, the regional military administration said. "They fired from MLRS, mortars, artillery, tanks and UAVs," it added.

"The Russian army attacked Kherson city 9 times -- residential areas of the city once again came under enemy fire," the regional military administration said. 

"The occupiers hit the commercial port and residential buildings," the regional military administration added.

Some background: The regional capital of Kherson was captured last March in the early stages of Russia’s invasion, and many of its 290,000 citizens left then. In November, Ukrainian forces swept into the key city as Russian troops retreated to the east, delivering a major victory to Kyiv. Since then, Kherson has been the scene of Russian shelling, and many residents have fled, on the advice of Ukraine's administration.

A Ukrainian drone was shot down Friday morning near a power station in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, according to a local Russia-backed official.

Gov. Mikhail Razvozhaev said in a Telegram post that air defenses shot the drone down near the Balaklava thermal power plant and there was no damage to the facility.

It comes after two Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight into Thursday near Sevastopol and "several more" unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down over the waters around the Crimean Peninsula, according to Razvozhaev.

CNN cannot independently confirm Razvozhaev’s claim.

Some context: Sevastopol, along with the rest of Crimea, is internationally recognized as being part of Ukraine. It is the largest city in the peninsula and has been an important port and a major naval base for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to “liberate” all of the country’s territory including Crimea, which has been under Russian occupation since 2014.

Inside a sprawling factory just off the President Biden Expressway in downtown Scranton, Pennsylvania, the future arsenal of Ukraine’s war effort is being forged, one red hot artillery shell at a time.

Running full-tilt, as it was on a recent January morning, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant churns out roughly 11,000 artillery shells a month. That may seem like a lot, but the Ukrainian military often fires that many shells over just a few days.

To meet that demand, the Scranton plant is undergoing a massive expansion, fueled by millions of dollars in new defense spending from the Pentagon. It’s investing in new high-tech machinery, hiring a few dozen additional workers and will eventually shift to a 24/7 schedule of constant production.

“It’s certainly ramped up over the last year. As we bring in more modern equipment, it’ll be able to ramp up even further,” said Todd Smith, senior director of General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, which operates the plant for the Army.

The US and its allies have already sent nearly $50 billion in aid and equipment to Ukraine’s military over the past year. To keep that up, and to rebuild its own stockpiles, the Pentagon is racing to re-arm, embarking on the biggest increase in ammunition production in decades, and putting portions of the US defense industry on a war-footing despite America technically not being at war.

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