February 18, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

Gen. David Petraeus told CNN he believes Ukrainian troops will be able to push Russian forces further back this summer, contingent on arms supply and strategy.

It will take successful combined arms warfare — a complementary approach where multiple kinds of fighting units support one another — to succeed, Petraeus told CNN's Nic Robertson at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

"If you cut that, you can start the isolation of Crimea, you can reduce it as a logistical support hub, and then you can divide the Russian forces. And then if you can take down the Kerch Strait bridge, you've really isolated them," he added.

Petraeus said if that scenario plays out, combined with long-range weapons for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), there'd be a "very different dynamic" in the conflict.

If Russian losses continue to pile up, "at some point, the Kremlin has to recognize this war is unsustainable on the battlefield. And if you continue to tighten the economic, financial and export controls, you make it unsustainable (on) the homefront as well," he said.

He also said Ukrainians being trained on Western weapons seem to be doing so at remarkable speed.

Ukrainian troops are receiving training on Leopard 2 tanks in Poland, the UK government said earlier this month that it will begin training Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard fighter jets, and the first group of Ukrainians completed training at a US base in Germany on Friday.

"I think they will be able to achieve the kind of combined arms effects that the Russians have not achieved," Petraeus reiterated.

CNN's Cristiana Moisescu contributed to this report.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that his government has a “profound stake” in a “just and durable” peace in Ukraine. 

“Any peace has to be consistent with the principles of the United Nations Charter," Blinken said during a discussion panel at the Munich Security Conference.

And, the top US diplomat said, it's in the best interest of countries around the world to make sure the outcome doesn't somehow validate Russia's move to seize territory by force.

Joined in a debate panel by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Blinken went on to assert that a durable peace means Ukraine will have the tools to stop aggression before it escalates in the future. 

“We have to do everything in our power to make sure that Russia won't simply repeat the exercise a year, five years later,” Blinken said. 

Later during the discussion, the US Secretary of State reiterated his country’s commitment to helping Ukraine during the war against Russia, noting "the unprecedented assistance" that's been provided and "an enduring commitment" to help Ukraine's defense long term.

Blinken added that the US has "no doubt at all about Ukraine's victory and success."

"And there's a simple, powerful reason for that — irrespective of anything else, including the support that we're providing," he said. "The biggest single difference is that Ukrainians are fighting for their own country, for their future, for their land. The Russians are not, and that will be the biggest thing." 

CIA Director Bill Burns said intelligence sharing with NATO allies has been critical to holding together a coalition in support of Ukraine over the past year.

“I think the intelligence sharing that we engage in — and it's a two-way street; we've learned a lot from our NATO partners, we learn a lot from the Ukrainians as well — I think has been the kind of essential cement in the coalition that (US President Joe Biden) has organized,” Burns said during a panel at a Saturday session of the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

The US puts a premium on sharing with its partners "in a very quick and systematic way,” Burns added. 

Republican Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, also offered praise for Burns and the intelligence community for ensuring intel on Russia is up to date.

“I just want to give ... Director Burns credit for the fact that we had sort of taken our eye off the ball with respect to Russia, we had sort of moved on, and we didn't have as much resources directed toward Russia as the Ukraine issue was unfolding,” Turner said. “And Director Burns, along with the Department of Defense and the director of National Intelligence had to really pull together, including our allies, new information and new critical analytical scrutiny of what we could find."

The eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Kharkiv faced more attacks from Russian forces Saturday, as newly drafted Russian soldiers appear to be replacing Wagner fighters, local military leaders said.

“The number of the Wagners has significantly decreased nowadays compared to what we saw a few months ago. Most likely they were killed in the Bakhmut and Soledar sectors,” Serhiy Hayday, head of the Luhansk region military administration, wrote on Telegram.

Hayday added that the eastern city of Kreminna is one of the areas seeing the most fighting, saying that "the overall situation is difficult but fully controlled. The number of attacks and shelling of our positions has indeed increased."

Russian forces are jamming Ukrainian drone signals while also deploying suicide squads to detect Ukrainian forces’ positions, according to Hayday.

In Kharkiv: Towns in the Kharkiv region, northwest of Luhansk, were also shelled by Russian forces on Saturday, killing one civilian and injuring two, according to Oleh Synehubov, head of the Kharkiv region military administration.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US Vice President Kamala Harris concurred during their meeting at the Munich Security Conference the war in Ukraine is global in scale.

“They agreed that Putin’s war in Ukraine is a global war, both in terms of its impact on food and energy security and in terms of its implications for internationally accepted norms like sovereignty. The prime minister and Vice President Harris condemned those countries who have supported Putin’s efforts politically and militarily," according to a Downing Street spokesperson.

Downing Street added that the two also discussed how to increase international action on Ukraine to secure peace for the future.

"They agreed on the importance of thinking beyond Ukraine’s immediate needs to how the international community can ensure Ukraine never faces the same threats again," the spokesperson said.

Moscow is displeased that Moldova appears to be moving closer to the European Union, Russian state media reports, amid growing US concerns that Russia could attempt to destabilize the small eastern European country.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Saturday that Moscow remains open to "constructive and pragmatic" dialogue with the Moldovan government in Chișinău, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

“Unfortunately, Chișinău's course toward Russia is unlikely to change," she continued. 

Moldova’s parliament this week approved a pro-Western government.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has accused Russia of plotting to destabilize the country, which Russia’s foreign ministry has dismissed as “completely unfounded and unsubstantiated.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced "deep concern" this week about the prospect of further Russian meddling with Moldova.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola also expressed the body's "unwavering solidarity" with Moldova in an open letter on Tuesday. "The place of the Republic of Moldova is with us, in the European family," he said.

Why Moldova is important: The small country, situated between Ukraine and Romania, was part of the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, a handful of “frozen conflict” zones in eastern Europe emerged, including a sliver of land along Moldova’s border with Ukraine known as Transnistria.

The territory declared itself a Soviet republic in 1990, opposing any attempt by Moldova to become an independent state or to merge with Romania. When Moldova became independent the following year, Russia quickly inserted a so-called “peacekeeping force” in Transnistria, sending troops to back pro-Moscow separatists there.

This supposed “peacekeeping” presence has mirrored Moscow’s pretext for invasions in Georgia and Ukraine.

Alarm bells in Moldova and the West grew louder when the Kremlin began to claim the rights of ethnic Russians are being violated in Transnistria – another argument used by Putin to justify his February 2022 invasion of Luhansk and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine, which contained two breakaway Russian-backed statelets.

In the context of the war today, the Russian-backed separatist enclave at the southwestern edge of Moldova could now present a bookend to any westward Russian assault from eastern Ukraine.

CNN's Elise Hammond and Michael Conte contributed to this report.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said allies need to “double down” on military support for Ukraine in order for Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals in Ukraine to fail.  

The EU chief appealed to allies to work together and speed up production of items that Ukraine has said it needs, such as ammunition.

"It cannot be that we have to wait months and years til we are able to replenish, until we are able to deliver that to Ukraine," von der Leyen said.

The European Commission president suggested using production approaches similar to those seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, when governments worked with pharmaceutical companies to scale up supply.

“We could think of, for example, advanced purchase agreements that gives the defense industry the possibility to invest in production lines now to be faster and to increase the amount they can deliver,” von der Leyen said. 

Ukraine’s foreign minister said Saturday that he was certain the country's allies would eventually supply fighter jets to help it fend off the Russian invasion.

"I will take a risk of saying that Ukraine will receive planes, it's a matter of time and procedure," Dmytro Kuleba said during a press conference at the Munich Security Conference.

"It will take more time than tanks. We understand that, but the very kind of logic, the basic sense of how the situation evolves, will take all of us to the decision on planes,” the Ukrainian foreign minister said.

Kuleba asked allies that may potentially send fighter jets to first prioritize pilot training.

Near the end of his press conference, Kuleba asked those in the room to show more faith in Ukraine when talking about its lack of resources. 

"A year ago, people here in Munich were telling me that we are not going to stand for more than 24, 48 hours — that we know you are not going to make it, you're not going to survive. You have to be rational. We've been there. We've seen it. Have trust in us, be with us, and we will win," Kuleba said. "Impossible is nothing. We proved it so many times over the last year of the year." 

Some background: Since securing pledges for hundreds of modern battle tanks from Western allies, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned his attention to modern fighting planes.

It was a key element of his pitches during visits to London and a European Union summit last week.

The United Kingdom will soon begin training Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard fighter jets, though the country's defense secretary has cautioned that any move to send British jets to Ukraine is likely years away.

Other Kyiv allies, while signaling openness to discussing the possibility, have also cautioned a decision to supply the military planes would not come quickly.

In a statement Saturday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed comments from Vice President Kamala Harris in declaring Russia has committed crimes against humanity in its war against Ukraine.

The determination was “based on a careful analysis of the law and available facts," Blinken said in the statement released by the US State Department.

Earlier Saturday, Harris announced the US declaration on Russia at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, which Blinken is also attending.

“We reserve crimes against humanity determinations for the most egregious crimes,” Blinken said. “There can be no impunity for these crimes. All those responsible must be held accountable.”