As calm pervades the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, the US views the Russian military threat to Ukraine growing.
The latest US intelligence indicates Russia is continuing to build up forces surrounding Ukraine in preparation for possible military action this week, a senior US official briefed on the intelligence tells CNN.
The US believes Russian military action would begin with air and missile attacks on key military infrastructure including airfields, air defense and early warning systems.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that “if there is a military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it's likely to begin with a significant barrage of missiles and bomb attacks.”
The Russian plan would then be further invade Ukraine from multiple points in the east and north, including plans to surround Kyiv within one to two days of the start of military action.
The air assault “would then be followed by an onslaught of a ground force moving across the Ukrainian frontier, again, where innocent civilians could get caught in the crossfire or get trapped in places that they could not move from,” Sullivan added.
The US also believes Russia may attempt a so-called "false flag" attack prior to military action in an attempt to create a justification for further invasion. US officials have discussed possibilities including Russia staging an attack on its own forces which Moscow would then blame on the Ukrainian military.
Military officials caution that the Russian timeline could change or Putin could decide not to attack. However, Russia has the capabilities and forces in place to initiate widespread action in the coming days.