Ukrainian military intel says Russian troop buildup continues but is insufficient for full-scale invasion
From CNN's Matthew Chance
The latest Ukrainian intelligence report says that the Ukrainian government believes the current Russian troop level is not enough to effectively invade.
“The Russian military contingent near the Ukrainian border is insufficient to carry out a successful large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine,” according to a Ukrainian intel report obtained by CNN.
The total number of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border has increased to over 148,000, including more than 126,000 ground troops, according to the report. This is in line with recent US reports about the strength of Russian forces threatening Ukraine.
According to the new Ukrainian intelligence assessment, shared exclusively with CNN, there are currently 87 Russia battalion tactical groups on constant alert around Ukraine, 53 more than are usually based in the area.
Recognizing that inability, the report said that “Russia focuses on destabilizing Ukraine’s internal situation,” including with the use economic and energy tools, plus cyberattacks.
The Ukrainian intelligence report also detailed what it called a “creeping Russian occupation of Belarus,” suggesting that Russia continues to bolster its air and missile forces in the country, which borders both Russia and Ukraine. The report said Belarus is now “a full-fledged theatre of operations,” that Russia can “use to expand its aggression in Eastern Europe.”
8:46 a.m. ET, February 16, 2022
Leaders of Russia and Belarus will meet Friday to discuss European security, Kremlin says
From CNN’s Uliana Pavlova in Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will meet in Moscow on Friday to discuss European security and bilateral relations, the Kremlin said in a statement Wednesday.
“On February 18, Vladimir Putin will hold talks with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow,” according to the Kremlin.
“It is planned to discuss issues of further development of Russian-Belarusian relations of strategic partnership and alliance, as well as topical problems of European security,” the Kremlin said.
8:40 a.m. ET, February 16, 2022
Ukrainian president observes newly acquired anti-tank missiles deployed in exercise
From CNN’s Tim Lister in Kyiv
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has carried out a tour of defensive preparations during a trip to mark Ukraine's Unity Day on Wednesday.
Among the equipment he saw were new anti-tank missiles sent to Ukraine by the US and UK, as well as Stinger missiles supplied by Lithuania.
Zelensky traveled to the central Rivne region to meet commanders and troops during exercises, dubbed Blizzard 2022.
A statement from the president's office said the exercises were designed to defeat an enemy during its “offensive actions.” Equipment involved included aircrafts and drones, air defenses and rocket launchers, the statement said.
Zelensky was accompanied on his tour by European envoys to Ukraine.
8:40 a.m. ET, February 16, 2022
Russian ambassador to Ireland says forces in western Russia will return to "standard posture" in 3 to 4 weeks
From CNN's Niamh Kennedy in London
The configuration of forces in Russia's western region will return to "standard posture" in three to four weeks, according to the Russian ambassador to Ireland, Yuriy Filatov.
Speaking to Irish TV station RTÉ on Tuesday, Filatov said that although he couldn't give “any figures” about Russian troop withdrawals, he could say that “within maybe three or four weeks, the configuration of the forces in the western region of Russia will return to normal standard posture.”
Russia doesn't have a “political, military, economic or whatever other reason” to invade Ukraine, Filatov continued, adding that “the whole idea is insane.”
When asked if withdrawn Russian troops could return to the border, Filatov said: “If there is a necessity to conduct exercises, they will.”
“Nobody will teach us what to do or not to do on our own territory. Let's not forget about that,” Filatov warned.
Some context: Russia President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia was sending some troops back to base after completing drills, and that while he is open to further negotiations on the Ukraine crisis, Moscow's security demands were an "unconditional priority."
US President Biden told reporters Tuesday that the US has "not yet verified the Russian military units are returning to their home bases," saying that they "remain very much in a threatening position."
CNN's Ivana Kottasová, Nathan Hodge and Uliana Pavlova contributed reporting to this post.
8:19 a.m. ET, February 16, 2022
The Kremlin says the "level of danger remains high" over Ukraine's Donbas region
From CNN's Anna Chernova and Nathan Hodge in Moscow
Pro-Russian Serviceman with a machine gun observing the front line in the dugout of the people's militia of the Luhansk People's Republic, Donbas, Ukraine on February 3 (Svetlana Kysilyova/ABACA/Reuters)
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned of the possibility of escalation by Ukrainian forces around the separatist-held regions of eastern Ukraine.
Asked how likely such a development might be, Peskov said, "The level of danger remains high."
"We are drawing the attention of our interlocutors in every possible way to the dangerous concentration of forces (in Ukraine) and to the fact that a military operation and an attempt to resolve the issue by force in the southeast is quite likely," Peskov said in a conference call with reporters on Wednesday.
"This is real. We have all witnessed that Kyiv began a military operation in Donbas, started a civil war. There have been such precedents," he continued.
The US and its allies have warned of potential provocations or "false flag" attacks that might be orchestrated by Russia to potentially justify a military offensive against Ukraine.
The Donbas region has been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014 and is referred to by Ukraine as "temporarily occupied territories." Russian forces are also present in the area, although the Kremlin denies it.
CNN on the ground in Ukraine: EU envoys show support for Ukraine and laud the calmness of those in Kyiv
From CNN's Ivana Kottasová in Kyiv, Ukraine
Ambassadors of European countries lay roses at the Wall of Remembrance to mark a "Day of Unity" in Kyiv, on February 16. The wall contains the names and photographs of military members who died since the conflict with Russian-backed separatists began in 2014. (Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN)
The embassy of the European Union in Kyiv was flying the Ukrainian flag on Wednesday, for the first time ever.
Matti Maasikas, the EU ambassador to Ukraine, said he wasn’t sure the act was strictly in line with protocol, but added these were not ordinary times.
Maasikas told CNN the EU was standing firmly behind Ukraine and was still hoping for a peaceful solution.
“The Ukrainian authorities have our unwavering support,” he said. “We are all hopeful that reason will prevail, but we have already seen how one can exhaust the neighboring country by amassing troops at your neighbor's border, to exhaust the country economically, psychologically, energy-wise. And that is absolutely unacceptable."
Maasikas was one of several European diplomats attending a commemorative ceremony at the Memorial Wall, a monument dedicated to those who defended Ukraine during the war that started in 2014.
He said that while the crisis involving Russia and Ukraine remains in the headlines around the world, Ukrainians themselves remain calm.
"There is no panic. The atmosphere is resolute. Ukraine has been at war for almost eight years now," Maasikas said.
Anka Feldhusen, the German ambassador to Ukraine, agreed. She hasn't noticed much panic on the streets of Kyiv in recent weeks, even as the US and NATO continued to issue ever more alarming warnings about the risk of a Russian invasion.
She likened the situation to the earlier days of the Covid-19 pandemic in Kyiv. While people in countries like the United States and United Kingdom hoarded toilet paper and flour, Ukrainians stayed calm.
"Of course people are worried, they all read now what's written everywhere. But I admire the Ukrainians for their calmness, and the way that they know life has to go on … they have suffered through so many things in the last 30 years, I think they're probably used to, but they're just very, very calm people,” she said.
Feldhusen has recently found herself in hot water over a diplomatic spat between her country and Ukraine. Last month, she was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, a diplomatic step that is rarely used between allies.
The Ukrainian government has been critical of Germany for not providing more military help to Kyiv. Berlin announced last month it would supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine as tensions grew with Russia — in addition to a field hospital and medical training — but no lethal weapons.
“I think our relations are on a very, very strong basis. They're always ups and downs,“ she said. “I don't think it's a misunderstanding. I think that we have to work very hard in Germany to understand what we can do to help and what we can't.”
Yulia Kesaieva contributed reporting to this post
7:57 a.m. ET, February 16, 2022
Russia to insist on NATO’s refusal to accept Ukraine, according to head of Russia's OSCE delegation
From CNN’s Uliana Pavlova in Moscow
Russia will insist that NATO publicly states it will not accept Ukraine as a member, said Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of Russia's delegation to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to Russian state news agency RIA-Novosti.
"Russia will insist that NATO publicly announces its refusal to accept Ukraine into its ranks,” Gavrilov said Wednesday at the plenary session of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation in Vienna.
“Kyiv, in turn, must proclaim its neutral, non-aligned status, as provided for in the Declaration on State Sovereignty of Ukraine of July 16, 1990," Gavrilov added.
Some background: Barring Ukraine's membership into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is one of Russia’s three key demands to the US and the NATO alliance, along with a halt to further expansion eastward of the alliance and the rollback of NATO’s military infrastructure to 1997 positions. Ukraine is committed through a constitutional amendment to NATO membership.
6:59 a.m. ET, February 16, 2022
NATO says Russia appears to be continuing its military build-up around Ukraine
From CNN’s James Frater at NATO HQ in Brussels and Nada Bashir in London
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg listens to a question from a journalist as he arrives for a meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on February 16. (Olivier Matthys/AP)
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says it appears Russia is continuing its military buildup on the border with Ukraine, despite Moscow's claim it was sending some troops back to base.
“We have heard signs from Moscow about readiness to continue diplomatic efforts, but so far we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground. On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues the military buildup,” Stoltenberg said Wednesday. “We will continue to convey a very clear message to Russia that we are ready to sit down and discuss with them, but at the same time we are prepared for the worst."
Stoltenberg’s remarks come just a day after Russia announced that some troops from its southern and western military districts had begun returning to their bases following exercises, although Moscow has said that military drills will continue to be held.
Speaking ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers on Wednesday, Stoltenberg stressed that NATO remains hopeful that Russia will engage in “meaningful dialogue” and choose to pursue diplomacy rather than confrontation.
“We are closely monitoring and following what they're doing,” Stoltenberg said. “If they really start to withdraw forces, that's something we will welcome, but that remains to be seen."
The secretary general noted that NATO has observed a steady increase in Russia’s military capabilities near the Ukrainian border over the last few weeks and months, with “well over 100,000” troops believed to be near the border.
“Russia retains the capability of a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, without any warning time,” he added.
11:27 a.m. ET, February 16, 2022
"We are not afraid": Kyiv marks a "Day of Unity" in the face of feared conflict
From CNN's Ivana Kottasová in Kyiv, Ukraine
People carry a 200 meter-long Ukrainian flag at the Olympic stadium to mark a "Day of Unity" in Kyiv on February 16. (Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN)
The largest flag in Ukraine -- all 200 meters (656 feet) of it -- was on display at Kyiv’s Olympic stadium on Wednesday, with hundreds of people holding it up while singing the national anthem and other patriotic songs.
They were marking Ukraine’s “Day of Unity," an impromptu celebration declared by
President Volodymyr Zelensky.
For Serhii Kachinskyi, 45, Unity Day is all about showing the world that everyday Ukrainians like himself are not afraid of potential armed conflict.
We have lived with this for eight years, we understand what’s happening and we are not afraid, we are standing together and this is in the heart of every Ukrainian,” he said.
While he said the situation has felt the same for much of past eight years, he sees one big difference.
We became more united, we are thinking more about the country and we became more responsible,” he said.
Serhii Kachinskyi (Ivana Kottasova/CNN)
Wednesday's significance: Zelensky announced that today would be a "Day of Unity" during an address to the nation on Monday, remarking with irony that his government was told Wednesday was the day Russia would invade Ukraine.
“We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it the Day of Unity. The relevant decree has already been signed. On this day, we will hoist national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons and show the world our unity,” Zelensky said.
While the celebrations were muted, with some events around the country only attended by a handful of people, flags large and small were flying on many street corners.
The digital panels normally displaying commercials in Kyiv’s streets were switched to a video showing the flash flying, and some government buildings were covered with giant blue and yellow banners.
Explaining war to children: Natalya Schamych said she came to the stadium in order to be a good example for her son. Kids were not allowed at the event, but she will relay the events to him. Schamych wants her son to grow up to be a responsible citizen, so she often talks about politics and civic duty with him, she said.
“I’d like for him to stay in our country and to have a desire to leave. I want him to have respect for the country, to live and work here,” she said.
She said her son was too young to understand the full picture, but that he knows what is going on.
“We are trying to give him information in a way he can understand, we don’t want him to get too scared," she said. “In the kindergarten, they are learning about this, they have army people come in explain the situation, he knows where he lives, he knows that there is a war."
Natalya Schamych said she came to the stadium to be a good example for her son. (Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN)
Life goes on: Meanwhile, rushing to work in central Kyiv, 48-year-old Alim wrapped himself in a Ukrainian flag as if it was a superhero cape. He has been carrying the flag with him every day for eight years now, he told CNN.
As a Crimean Tatar, he never accepted the Russian annexation of his home region in 2014.
“It’s my civilian position. I am from Crimea, I’ve been wearing it since the occupation,” he said.
Alim, who is from Crimea, says he has been carrying his Ukrainian flag around every day for the past eight years -- ever since Russia annexed the peninsula. (Ivana Kottasova/CNN)
Around the corner, foreign dignitaries, including the German and EU ambassadors to Ukraine, were laying flowers by the Memorial Wall dedicated to those who defended Ukraine during the war that started in 2014.
Many pinned their coats with blue and yellow ribbons to show their solidarity with Ukraine.
For Alim though, Wednesday was just another day. Another day of wearing the flag, going about his own business.
Yulia Kesaieva contributed reporting to this post.
