US President Biden’s determination that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine was made in part based on the latest intelligence assessments showing nearly half of Russian forces massed on the borders have moved into attack position, administration officials and people familiar with the matter said.
Still, Biden had not initially been planning to announce during his speech Friday that he believed Putin made up his mind, and the revelation was not included in his prepared remarks. He only made his view known afterward when questioned by a reporter, answering at first only in the affirmative and declining to expand.
He also made clear there is a diplomatic path to resolve the crisis, even as US officials believe it is growing narrower as signs mount of an imminent invasion.
Defense officials said Friday the number of battalion tactical groups had swelled to approximately 120-125, and that Russian forces were continuing to move toward the border.
Biden’s view of Putin’s decision-making reflected those developments and the broader assessments of the intelligence community, an administration official said. The President cited “a significant intelligence capability” for his view of Putin’s thinking, which he’d previously said was something of a mystery.
American officials have said Putin’s intentions have been difficult to discern because he keeps his plans hidden from even his senior-most advisers, revealing his decisions only when they are made.
In the wake of Biden's remarks, a source from France's presidential palace told journalists Friday that no leader knows for sure whether Russia will invade Ukraine, but there is a risk.
“No leader said tonight that the invasion will or will not take place; we’re talking about risk,” the Élysée Palace source said, following a call between the leaders of the US, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Romania, NATO and the European Union.
“We’re not in the head of President Putin,” the source continued.