March 23, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches the one-month mark, fighting is raging across major cities with defending forces trying to take back some areas, according to a US official.

Russian warplanes have struck another blow against Chernihiv, destroying a bridge on one of the last remaining routes to Ukrainian-held territory, the city's regional head Vyacheslav Chaus announced Wednesday morning.

Chernihiv, which is about halfway between Kyiv and the Russian border, has seen some of the most intense shelling since Russia invaded Ukraine four weeks ago. Among the more recent deadly attacks was one on a line of people lining up for bread, in which officials said at least 10 people died.

But on his Telegram page, Chaus struck a defiant note, promising supplies to the city would continue.

“Secondly, we will definitely build a new bridge. A much better one. It was an old bridge. A city like Chernihiv, a hero city, deserves a new, cool, modern bridge, and we will definitely build it after our victory,” he said.

In another possible sign that Ukrainian security forces are regaining territory around the capital of Kyiv, national police say they are resuming work in the suburb of Irpin, much of which had been occupied by Russian forces.

Ihor Klymenko, head of the National Police of Ukraine, said Wednesday on Facebook that "police resume work in Irpin! Soldiers of the special police regiment in Kyiv region are ready to perform their police functions in this city."

"The area is being cleared of saboteurs, but the main task now is to help civilians and to evacuate those who are still in Irpin," Klymenko added.

Irpin is to the northwest of Kyiv and has seen weeks of fierce fighting and heavy shelling.

Klymenko added: "The Russian occupiers continue to mercilessly shell Irpin," a sign that they continue to hold territory to the north of the suburb.

CNN reported Tuesday on advances by Ukrainian forces to the west and north of Kyiv.

Russia's war in Ukraine is approaching the one-month mark, and its troops' advancement on some key cities, including the capital of Kyiv, appears to have slowed.

So where is this war going? Here are five things to watch out for in coming weeks.

1. Russia could intensify its bombing campaign

Experts are warning that the more Russia takes a hit on the ground, the more likely it is to intensify its aerial bombing campaign and the use of other "standoff" weapons that put Russian soldiers in less danger.

There is little reliable information coming out of either Ukraine or Russia on death tolls, but a report in a Russian tabloid on Monday suggested that the Russian side had lost nearly 10,000 soldiers and that another 16,000 had been injured.

The Komsomolskaya Pravda website removed the numbers later in the day, claiming the numbers only appeared in the first place because it had been hacked. CNN could not verify the numbers, but the death toll is closer to what US intelligence agencies have been reporting.

Such losses, if proven to be true, would explain both the stall in ground movement and the uptick in aerial bombing of key cities and other standoff attacks.

2. While there's focus on Kyiv, Russia may try to encircle Ukrainian fighters in the east

There is much talk about the Russian war effort stalling, but whether or not that's true comes down to what Moscow's objectives were in the first place.

It's likely that Russia is, at the very least, trying to absorb parts of eastern Ukraine. Areas like Donetsk and Luhansk, which make up the Donbas region, have been controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and while Russia's ambitions may stretch beyond Donbas, it's still likely a central focus, experts say.

"The Southern Military District -- in Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol -- these are the best troops in the Russian army. And they always work. They're designed to fight NATO," Sam Cranny-Evans, a research analyst with the Royal United Services Institute, told CNN.

3. There will be more talk about talks

One scenario is that the Ukraine war could become a protracted conflict. It's likely that Russia has lost a significant number of soldiers, weapons and equipment in the war, and while it has engaged in long-running conflicts in the past, it won't want to leave this one with its military totally destroyed.

"The negotiations are the one area where things are looking a little promising because both Russia and Ukraine have said in the last week that they're moving towards an actual substantive discussion, instead of Russia just laying down an ultimatum," Keir Giles, a Russian expert at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told CNN.

Russian officials have said that their demands include Ukraine dropping its pitch to join NATO and to demilitarize and adopt a "neutral" status, like Austria and Sweden have. But the conditions for what that means for Ukraine would have to be negotiated.

4. There could be wholesale "deportations" of Ukrainians into Russia. That's worrying

Russia has been telling residents of the southern city of Mariupol to leave as it carries on an aggressive aerial bombardment that has torn the city to pieces. Its forces have opened what they call "humanitarian corridors" to allow civilians to flee, but tens of thousands of them have been transported to Russia.

Russian state media organization RIA Novosti reported that nearly 60,000 residents of Mariupol had reached Russian territory "in complete safety." Russian media has shown lines of vehicles apparently heading east to the border, some 25 miles (40 kilometers) from Mariupol.

But Mariupol council accused Russia of forcing residents to go to Russia against their will.

Mariupol mayor Vadym Boichenko has said that "what the occupiers are doing today is familiar to the older generation, who saw the horrific events of World War II, when the Nazis forcibly captured people."

5. Millions more Ukrainians could flee, leaving a nation in pieces

The fate of the war is one thing, but the fate of Ukraine is another.

Already, more than 3.5 million Ukrainians have left the country. Most are women and children, meaning families are also being torn apart. The war has triggered the biggest movement of refugees Europe has seen since World War II. Those numbers are increasing at a rate of around 100,000 people a day.

If you include the number of people internally displaced, 10 million Ukrainians have now left their homes. That's nearly a quarter of the country's population.

Read more here:

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5 things that could happen in Ukraine next | CNN

The deployment of a NATO peacekeeping mission to Ukraine would be “very reckless” and “extremely dangerous,” according to Moscow.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Wednesday: “Any possible contact between our military and NATO military can lead to quite understandable consequences that are difficult to repair."

Some context: Last week, Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski called for an international peacekeeping mission to be sent to Ukraine following a meeting with the leaders of Poland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Ukraine.

Poland plans to submit its proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at a NATO summit in Brussels on Thursday.

Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski recently told CNN's Jake Tapper that NATO needs to consider "all possibilities" in Ukraine to send a "very clear signal to the Kremlin."

Magierowski said any peacekeeping mission would take place "without engaging Russia in direct military confrontation because this is not the intent."

Russian troops are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east as they advance westward "from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south," an intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday.

The battlefield across the northern part of Ukraine "remains largely static with Russian forces likely conducting a period of reorganization before resuming large-scale offensive operations," according to the update. 

As far as southern Ukraine is concerned, the Russian forces are still "attempting to circumvent Mykolaiv as they look to drive west towards Odesa,” it added.

Some context:

A senior US defense official said Ukrainians are fighting to push Russian forces from the northeast of Mykolaiv, forcing them to reposition south of the city.

On Monday, Mariupol rejected terms to surrender. The city is a strategic port that lies on a stretch of coast connecting the eastern region of Donbas with the Crimea peninsula, both of which have been under Russian control since 2014. Russian forces appear to be trying to take full control of the area to create a land corridor between the two regions, squeezing Mariupol with brutal military force.

Last week, Russian warships in the Black Sea shelled the Ukrainian coast in areas close to the key southern city of Odesa, according to Ukraine’s armed forces.

According to a statement posted on the Ukrainian armed forces’ Facebook page, the villages of Lebedivka, Sanzheika, Zatoka and Bilenke, all of which lie about about 18 miles (30 kilometers) south of the port city, had been shelled. 

Odesa is Ukraine’s third largest city and regarded as a key target of Russia’s campaign. 

The Russian military said Wednesday it had struck a military arsenal in northwestern Ukraine with sea-launched missiles.

CNN was not immediately able to verify that claim, but such an attack would continue an apparent campaign against targets closer to Ukraine's western border.

"On the evening of March 22, sea-based high-precision long-range weapons targeted an arsenal in the village of Orzhiv, 14 kilometers (about 8.6 miles) northwest of the city of Rivne," said Russian Ministry of Defense spokesperson Igor Konashenkov.

"As a result of the strike, a large arsenal of weapons and military equipment of Ukrainian troops, including those received from Western countries, was destroyed."

On Monday, the Russian military said it fired air-launched cruise missiles at what was described as a Ukrainian military training center in Nova Lyubomyrka, located in Ukraine's northwestern Rivne oblast.

Vitalii Koval, head of the Rivne regional administration, confirmed that two Russian missiles had struck the territory of a military training ground.

When Mykhailo "Misha" Golod stepped off the plane at Orlando International Airport in Florida on March 11, it marked the end of a marathon journey the 15-year-old and his mother had undertaken to escape the war in his homeland of Ukraine.

But his arrival in the US from Kyiv -- while it assured his safety -- came at a price.

Golod’s mother would soon return to Ukraine to be with his dad, who had to remain due to martial law that bans males aged 18-60 from leaving the country, and his grandparents. Although Golod thinks his grandparents and mother will travel to the US, he's unsure when he'll next see his father.

Although he appreciates his safety, having the majority of his family back in Ukraine in the midst of Russia's invasion of the country has weighed heavily on him.

"It's very devastating, but thankfully, they all have Wi-Fi and a source of internet, food, water, and I can still talk to them and make sure they're safe," he told CNN.

"And I know that once everything is over, I'll definitely bring them here to be with me."

Golod added: "My father will only be able to leave once the martial law ends. And otherwise, he'll have to stay in there and we'll hope for the best."

Golod is one of the best young golfers in Ukraine and has participated in competitions around the world. After his grueling, 5,000-mile journey, it was a visa he had obtained from playing in a tournament in the US that helped him re-enter the country and find safety.

Read more about Golod’s escape from Ukraine here and watch his interview with CNN here: