There is a growing belief among some administration officials that Iran’s missiles intentionally missed areas populated by Americans during attacks on Tuesday, multiple administration officials said.
These officials floated the notion that Iran could have directed their missiles to hit areas that are populated by Americans — but specifically did not.
They suggested Iran may have chosen to send a message rather than take significant enough action to engender a substantial US military response, a possible signal the administration was looking for rationale to calm the tensions.
Missiles also hit close to the US consulate in Erbil, but didn’t go for the consulate itself, though the expectation is that they could have. Officials have said there were no US casualties as a result of the attacks.
The Pentagon is assessing whether this was the limit of Iran’s response and calibrated to ensure it didn’t cause significant damage, according to one source with knowledge. There are also questions about Iran’s targeting capabilities, which could have impacted the areas that were hit.
“We could have done it and we didn’t do it,” is the message Iranians appeared to be sending, a State Department official said.
What happens next: This interpretation will be presented to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a briefing today, and Pompeo is expected to brief the President at some point later in the day.
The US gave Iran the “opportunity to do what they needed to do and not escalate by killing Americans,” the official said, suggesting how the administration could frame the retaliation. This was “a smart move” by the Iranians who demonstrated that they had “more to lose” if they killed Americans.
Now, the major question is if Iranian proxies follow suit, the official explained.
Pompeo is “pragmatic” right now and the general sentiment last night was “let’s take a breath.”
There were no additional moves taken overnight to add any more protection to US diplomatic facilities abroad.