Of all the early state polling that has come out over the last week or so, our Nevada poll is the best news for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by far. He’s in a top tier with former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and this is not the first Nevada poll to put him there.
Nevada’s unique demographics among the early states is why.
Unlike any of the other early states, Nevada has a substantial Hispanic population. About 20% of our likely caucus-goers sample identifies as Latino. We don’t have a large enough sample to report how well Sanders is doing among that bloc, but our last national poll showed that the Vermont senator did his best among Latino voters.
The other big reason is that white caucus-goers without a college degree outnumber whites with a college degree in our sample. Whites without a college degree were a larger percentage of the Democratic vote in 2018 as well. Sanders does about twice as well among whites without a college degree in our sample than whites with a college degree. That matches what we see nationally.
The big question for Sanders is whether he can actually maintain his Nevada support, if he loses in both Iowa and New Hampshire.