Dec. 1, 2022 coverage of the Georgia runoff election

Former President Barack Obama urged supporters of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to avoid complacency ahead of Tuesday's runoff election.

The former president said that he was encouraged by early voter turnout numbers, but said that more needs to be done to secure Warnock's chances, noting that early voting in the state ends Friday.

More than 1.1 million votes have been cast so far, according to the Georgia secretary of state’s office. The state has had several days with historically high early voting numbers.

Former President Barack Obama is holding a rally with Sen. Raphael Warnock tonight in Atlanta and is addressing his supporters.

What's at stake in the runoff: Even with control of the Senate already secured, the stakes are high as Democrats seek to secure a majority outright instead of the power-sharing agreement currently in place.

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is urging his supporters to continue to turn out to the polls ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff election, saying "it's time to raise your voice."

More than 1.1 million votes have been cast so far, according to the Georgia secretary of state’s office. The state has had several days with historically high early voting numbers.

But Warnock said now is not the time to let up, urging voters to cast their ballot if they haven't already.

“We got to keep our foot on the gas all the way to victory," he said at a rally Thursday in the final sprint of the campaign.

Warnock took a stab at his Republican challenger Herschel Walker, saying, “This race is about character and competence" — a common attack on his opponent he has made throughout his campaign.

"I believe in my soul that Georgia knows that Georgia is better than Herschel Walker," he said.

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is addressing supporters at a rally in Atlanta right now. Former President Barack Obama is also expected to speak at the event.

Warnock thanked his supporters for turning out on Election Day and allowing him to finish ahead of GOP opponent Hershel Walker. But he added that the pressure is still on.

What's at stake in the runoff: Even with control of the Senate already secured, the stakes are high as Democrats seek to secure a majority outright instead of the power-sharing agreement currently in place.

Arriving at the White House for the administration’s State Dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron, Keisha Lance-Bottoms, White House senior adviser for Public Engagement and former Atlanta mayor, said she was optimistic about Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s chances in Tuesday’s runoff election.

More than 1 million Georgians have voted early — absentee or in-person – so far.

But Lance-Bottoms wouldn’t say if President Joe Biden intends to visit the state ahead of election day Tuesday.

“I don’t know the answer to that — I think the President will go wherever he’s wanted and needed, and I know that — we know that we have a great senator in Georgia, so we’re excited," she said.

More than 1 million Georgians have voted early (absentee or in-person) ahead of Tuesday’s Senate runoff election. The compact nature of the early voting period for the runoff makes it difficult to make an apples-to-apples comparison with what occurred during the November general election.

Still, there are a number of notable trends that suggest an upside for Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in his race against Republican Herschel Walker. This doesn’t mean Warnock is definitely going to win, but the data indicates you’d rather be Warnock than Walker right now.

When examining early voting, keep in mind we do not know how people are voting in the runoff. We know how voters as a group cast ballots in the general election. Groups that were more favorable for Warnock seem to be voting in larger numbers now compared with the general election when a similar number of early ballots were cast.

Remember too that Warnock got more votes than Walker in November, even though both failed to take a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff. This means Walker needs to gain more (or lose fewer) voters than Warnock in order to win.

Perhaps the best way to see if Walker voters are turning out in larger numbers is to look at race and age. Warnock won Black voters 90% to 8% in November’s general election. Walker won White voters 70% to 28%.

So far in early voting, Black voters make up a little more than 33% of the electorate, while White voters account for 54%. At a roughly similar point in the general election based on the number of early votes cast, about 31% of voters were Black and about 57% were White.

This may seem like a small difference, but given the large partisan gap between Black and White voters, it suggests that those who have gone to the polls so far are more Democratic than at a similar point in the general election.

I should note that a number of Democratic counties opened up early in-person voting sooner than Republican-leaning counties. That said, voters in all Georgia counties have been able to cast a ballot for a number of days now, and the racial voting gap between the general election and runoff has not gone away.

Keep reading here.

While some Georgia counties held early voting last week or over the weekend, every county is required to hold early voting Monday through Friday of this week. The condensed time frame leading up to the runoff means there are fewer days of early voting than there were before the general election.

Both candidates are still ramping up to Election Day as early votes continue to come in. For Warnock, that means another visit from former President Barack Obama, who will be in Atlanta tonight to campaign for him. The senator was joined on the stump by New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker over the weekend and welcomed musician Dave Matthews to a Monday night rally.

On Tuesday, Walker welcomed Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel and Oklahoma Sen.-elect Markwayne Mullin. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham have also been out in force for Walker.

The stakes are such that even the parties’ most powerful figures are making tough decisions in order to help their side gain any advantage – or, in the cases of President Joe Biden and former President Trump – be careful to do no harm.

Trump and Biden have both steered clear of Georgia, where neither is popular with those decisive swing voters, during the campaign. Trump, who recruited Walker to run and has been a consistent supporter, will not appear in the state ahead of the Dec. 6 election, a person close to Walker confirmed to CNN.

Many Republicans also blame Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election in Georgia for their defeat in the January 2021 runoffs, when then-GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler lost to Democrats Jon Ossoff and Warnock, respectively.

Republicans have spent much of the race hammering Warnock over his record of consistently voting for the president’s legislative agenda. Warnock, in turn, has sought to highlight his bipartisan work in the Senate and has steadfastly kept his distance from any potentially divisive figures in his party.

America is heading for a year-end political collision that will set the stage for showdowns between the new Republican-led House and the Democrats who still wield power in the Senate and White House. The Georgia Senate runoff is one of the key end-of-year political showdowns.

Former President Barack Obama, who was the most effective Democratic messenger in the midterms, is due to campaign for Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in Atlanta tonight at a 6:15 p.m. ET rally.

Republican challenger Herschel Walker's chances could depend on whether he is able to win over a significant block of Republican voters who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for him despite backing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Walker's problem is that he’s a protégé of former President Donald Trump, from whom Kemp kept a good distance.

After Trump announced his 2024 campaign days after the midterms, Warnock and his supporters started framing the runoff as the first chance for Democrats to stop Trump’s bid to return to the White House. Their argument recalled complaints by many Republicans that Trump’s intervention in two 2020 Senate runoffs in Georgia cost the GOP the chance to control the Senate.

This might all be about one seat. But holding the Senate 51-49 rather than 50-50 would be huge for Democrats because it would insulate them from the incapacitation of one of their members and could diminish the power of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who has been a stubborn brake on President Joe Biden’s aspirations for two years.

Read about the other end-of-year political showdowns here.

With just days to go before Georgia’s Senate runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, heavy hitters and big dollars from both national parties are pouring into the state for a race that will determine the balance of power in the Democratic-controlled Senate next year.

If the Republican prevails, the parties will again split the Senate 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris providing a tie-breaking vote and Democrats the slightest possible advantage.

Democrats will control the chamber after the party’s incumbents held their ground and Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman picked up a seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

But this is still a race full of consequences.

In the short term, a Warnock victory would deliver more power to Democrats as they seek a firmer grip on the procedural life of the Senate, which could help them confirm more Biden nominees in a more expeditious manner. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin would also lose some of his leverage, if Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had a vote to spare, which could hold added significance given Manchin is facing reelection in 2024.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, spelled out the stakes on Monday.

Thune also conceded that his party could use a morale boost after underperforming expectations in the midterms, despite narrowly gaining control of the House.

“It’d be nice to get a win on the books, and especially in a state like Georgia, where, frankly, we think we should be winning,” Thune said.

Beyond that, looking ahead to the next election in 2024, Republicans – already with a more favorable map than this year – would be better positioned to win back a majority, perhaps a significant one, if Walker can pad their numbers now.