Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock will win Georgia Senate runoff

Despite the rainy weather, a line began to form before 7 a.m. ET at the C.T. Martin Natatorium and Recreation Center polling site in southwest Atlanta. 

When the polls opened, voters moved through the queue relatively quickly, getting in and out within a few minutes. 

Tondalia Smith said she previously tried voting during the early voting period but left after an hour and a half of waiting. She returned to vote this morning and was pleasantly surprised by how fast she was able to cast her ballot. "I was like, thank you Jesus, I came early," she said. 

When CNN asked if she was concerned the gloomy weather would impact turnout, she said, "No, not at all. We have to come outside."

Other voters at the recreation center echoed that resolve. 

"It's part of nature," said Gail Banks, noting the rainy weather didn't sway her and hopes it does not impact others.

"I think people have purpose in their hearts to get the right person in that office. So the weather is not going to be a factor coming out," said James Hall, who voted with his 25-year-old grandson Demarco. 

"Our choices that we make today will determine a lot that goes on in the next 10 to 20 years," said Demarco Hill, adding he wouldn't miss the opportunity to vote whether there is rain, snow or sleet.

A Georgia election official said the winner in Tuesday's runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican nominee Hershel Walker might not be known on election night after record early voter turnout.

More than 1.8 million Georgians have voted so far, as of Dec. 3, with about 300,000 people voting early each day last week — setting records for the largest single-day early voting turnout in state history. Early voting for the runoff ended on Friday.

"There's obviously a lot of enthusiasm," Sterling said. "Both Democrats and Republicans can point to the turnout models and say, 'that's good for us,' so nobody knows what's going to happen." 

A tight race: Before any votes are counted, CNN's recent poll of the Georgia Senate runoff showed Warnock narrowly leading Walker 52% to 48% among likely voters.

According to the survey, nearly half of those who backed Walker (47%) said their vote was more about opposition to Warnock than support for their candidate. And 52% said their vote was more to support Walker.

Warnock’s supporters broadly said they were casting ballots to support their candidate (83%) rather than to oppose Walker (17%).

That difference, the poll suggests, could be a factor in driving turnout in the race.

Heavy hitters and big dollars from both national parties have been pouring into Georgia for a race that will determine the balance of power in the Democratic-controlled Senate next year.

If Republican Herschel Walker prevails, the parties will again split the Senate 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris providing a tie-breaking vote and Democrats the slightest possible advantage.

Democrats will control the chamber after the party’s incumbents held their ground and Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman picked up a seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

But this is still a race full of consequences.

In the short term, a Sen. Raphael Warnock victory would deliver more power to Democrats as they seek a firmer grip on the procedural life of the Senate, which could help them confirm more President Joe Biden nominees in an expeditious manner. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin would also lose some of his leverage if Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had a vote to spare, which could hold added significance, given Manchin is facing reelection in 2024.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, spelled out the stakes on last week.

Thune also conceded that his party could use a morale boost after underperforming expectations in the midterms, despite narrowly gaining control of the House.

“It’d be nice to get a win on the books, and especially in a state like Georgia, where, frankly, we think we should be winning,” Thune said.

Beyond that, looking ahead to the next election in 2024, Republicans – already with a more favorable map than this year – would be better positioned to win back a majority, perhaps a significant one, if Walker can pad their numbers now.

Democrats clinched 50 seats in the Senate, but the stakes remain high for today's Georgia’s runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

Neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold needed to win the race outright in the November general election, forcing a runoff.

A runoff is an additional election used to determine the winner of a certain race when neither candidate earns the required threshold for victory – in this case, 50%.

In Georgia, runoffs are more straightforward than general elections, as the candidate with the most votes wins.

Heading into Tuesday’s Senate runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker, more than 1.8 million Georgians have voted early after only about a week. Black voters have made up nearly a third of the early electorate so far, while more than a quarter of voters so far are under 50.

About 300,000 Georgians have voted early each day this week – setting records for the largest single-day early voting turnout in state history. Early voting for the runoff ended on Friday.

Georgians had only five mandatory days of early voting this year, compared with three weeks during the last runoff and for last month’s general election. All but 22 counties chose not to allow early voting last Saturday and Sunday as well.

Overall, 2022 midterm turnout was slightly up from the 2018 midterms but down more than 21% from the 2020 general election.

While midterm voters typically skew older and Whiter, turnout data from the Georgia secretary of state’s office shows that in 2022, midterm voters in Georgia were older and Whiter than they have been in the past four elections, including the 2018 midterms. Those voters tend to lean Republican. The fact that Warnock not only forced a runoff but also narrowly led Walker in the first round of voting last month suggests he had the support of independent and some Republican voters, political scientists told CNN.

CNN exit polls of Georgia voters in the November election show that the share of independent voters shrank 4 percentage points compared with 2020. However, independent voters were 24% of the electorate, which Warnock won by 11 points, according to CNN exit polls.

Georgia is hosting a Senate runoff election on Tuesday between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker, a former football player.

Warnock and Walker first faced each other in the Nov. 8 general election, but neither of them received more than 50% of the vote, forcing a runoff election.

Why it matters: Control of the Senate is not on the line, as Democrats already secured a 50-seat majority, but a victory here for Democrats would give them control of the chamber outright.

The candidates: This is Warnock’s fourth campaign in two years. He first ran in 2020 against appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler to finish former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term. That race went to a runoff election in Jan. 2021 which Warnock won. Warnock and Democratic Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff’s wins gave Democrats control of the Senate in 2021.

While Donald Trump’s endorsement helped Walker secure the nomination, the former president mostly stayed on the sidelines throughout the runoff campaign amid concerns he could turn off independents and suburban women, critical voting blocs in the state. Trump did hold a tele-rally for Walker on Monday. Former President Barack Obama, on the other hand, traveled to Georgia to stump for Warnock and cut a new ad for him.

Walker's campaign has been filled with controversies. In November, CNN’s KFile reported that Walker is getting a homestead tax exemption in Texas this year – something that is supposed to apply to primary residences. Walker registered to vote in Georgia in 2021 and lived in Texas for 20 years. The report has resurfaced questions about Walker’s residency that have dogged him throughout the campaign. 

What votes looked like on Nov. 8: In the November general election, Warnock led with 49.4% of the vote and Walker had 48.5%. The libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, carried 2.1% of the vote.

Poll and voting information: Any registered voter can vote by mail or vote early in person. Voters did not have to participate in the November general election to participate in the runoff election. Polls opened Tuesday at 7 a.m. ET and close at 7 p.m. ET. The last day to vote early was Friday.