The latest on the Iowa caucuses and 2024 primary campaign

Republican candidates and their allies have bombarded Iowa residents with more than $123 million in advertising, breaking the pace set during the 2020 caucuses.

The three leading Republican presidential candidates – Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis – and their allied super PACs account for more than 70% of all the ad spending in Iowa since the start of 2023, which amounts to more than $90 million.

The $123 million in ad spending far outpaces the $84 million that campaigns and groups had spent on advertising ahead of the 2020 Iowa caucuses, when Democrats were battling to become their party’s standard-bearer.

In recent weeks, Haley and DeSantis – who are jockeying to emerge as the leading alternative to Trump, the Iowa polling front-runner – have pummeled one another on the airwaves with blistering ads that accuse their opponent of failing to confront the economic and national security threat posed by China and attacking their records as governor.

All the while, they’ve largely steered clear of targeting Trump.

Read more about how Republicans and allies have bombarded Iowa residents with more than $123 million in advertising.

The storied history of the Iowa caucuses has never seen anything like this.

A fateful election year likely to put the country’s institutions to an extreme test opens Monday as the first-in-the-nation state shivers under a blast of perishing polar weather.

But it’s not stopping Donald Trump from telling his voters to go out and caucus even if they’re “sick as a dog,” while urging them to punish enemies he branded “cheaters” and “liars.” The former president, who left office in disgrace in January 2021, is seeking a bumper win to set him on the road to a third straight GOP nomination — and a possible return to the White House.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley wants a jolt of momentum ahead of next week’s New Hampshire primary – her best bet for a shock win over Trump. And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is battling to keep his campaign alive.

But after months of polls, multimillion-dollar ad blitzes and a collision between an election and Trump’s legal morass, Iowans’ voices are the only ones that matter, although the weather may influence which of them is able to show up.

Read more about Collinson's analysis of the Iowa caucuses.

Iowa Republicans who are willing to brave record-low temperatures are set to kick off the party’s 2024 presidential nominating process with Monday night’s caucuses.

The Arctic cold largely froze the field in the race’s final days, with former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and others shortening their lists of scheduled events.

Now, Iowa voters will render the first verdict of the 2024 election, weighing in on which Republican should take on President Joe Biden in November.

Will Trump top 50%?

The race for second place

Does Iowa narrow the field?

Here's what else to watch in Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses.

Former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead over his Republican presidential competitors among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom  before Monday’s caucuses found.

Overall:

Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls.

Haley’s numerical move to second place is within the margin of error. Neither her support nor DeSantis’ has changed significantly since the December poll, when DeSantis stood at 19% to Haley’s 16% in a survey with a 4.4 point error margin.

Here's what else to know about polling in Iowa.

Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann on Sunday predicted that despite the forecasted subzero temperatures and parts of Iowa hit by a blizzard over the weekend, there will be a “robust turnout” on Monday night’s caucuses.

“Temperatures are the least of my concern in terms of depressing turnout. Iowans know how to dress for that,” Kaufmann said, speaking to reporters at an event hosted Bloomberg in Des Moines.

“From what I’m hearing, and what I’m seeing in the rallies…I think it’s going to be a robust turnout,” he added.

Kaufmann, who has not endorsed a candidate, said “complacency” is the “number one worry."

Candidates – including frontrunner former President Donald Trump – have urged their supporters to brave the cold and caucus for them.

“Even if we did not have a poll where we have one of the one of the candidates way ahead, we always have to guard against complacency,” he said.

The severe weather conditions over the weekend forced the presidential hopefuls to either cancel events or switch to tele-town halls, creating a missed opportunity for candidates to connect in-person and deliver their closing message to undecided voters.

Iowa will have their coldest caucuses ever on Monday, as a dangerous Arctic blast dives into the central US this weekend and last through early next week. Monday is expected to be the coldest January day for Iowa in at least five years, with wind chills as low as minus 40 Fahrenheit.

Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning. Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, the exception being the far southeastern portion of the state that may reach a degree or two above zero. This would be the first time since February of 2021 that the high temperature in Des Moines fails to reach zero degrees.

Add winds to this bitter cold and wind chill will reach life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.

The forecast average daily temperature for Des Moines on Monday is minus 9.5 degrees, nearly 20 degrees colder than the previous coldest caucus night on January 19, 2004, when the average temperature was 9 degrees, according to CNN analysis of NWS data for Iowa caucuses. Iowa has held caucuses every four years since 1972 in either January or February.

Record-shattering cold caucuses will be in store for the rest of the state as well. Sioux City is forecast to average minus 10 degrees on Monday, more than 20 degrees colder than the 11 degree average for the caucus in 2004. Cedar Rapids is forecast to average minus 9 degrees and Davenport minus 8 degrees on Monday. Previous coldest caucuses there averaged 5.5 and 8 degrees respectively on January 24, 2000.

The Iowa caucus on Monday will provide the first test of whether Donald Trump’s secret weapon in the 2016 GOP presidential nomination contest – his strong support among blue-collar evangelical Christians – is still working for him in 2024.

All signs suggest the answer is: yes.

The biggest surprise in Trump’s march to the nomination in 2016 was how many White evangelical Christians voted for a thrice-married casino-owning New Yorker who had previously expressed liberal views on social issues such as abortion. The key to Trump’s breakthrough among evangelical Christians was his commanding support among the members of that community without a college degree, who supported him then in much greater numbers than those with advanced education.

This time, the former president is running better in national polling than in the 2016 contest among virtually every major demographic group across the party. But blue-collar evangelicals could once again prove a crucial line of defense for Trump in the early states, including Iowa, where voters are more engaged in the race and the results will determine whether his remaining rivals can seriously threaten him for the nomination.

As Texas Sen. Ted Cruz did when he ran against Trump in the 2016 race, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pinned his hopes this year largely on mobilizing Iowa’s large number of evangelical Christian conservatives. Like Cruz, DeSantis has staked out the far right flank on virtually every cultural issue in the race and made the case to evangelicals that they can’t trust Trump to deliver on the issues they care most about, including banning abortion and restricting options for transgender young people to participate in school sports or receive gender-affirming care. Late Friday night, DeSantis’ campaign announced he had obtained endorsements from 150 “faith leaders” across Iowa; many of the state’s most prominent social conservatives have rallied around him.

Keep reading about Trump's lead among evangelicals.

The Republican presidential candidates are all vying to take on President Joe Biden in November. But first, they’re competing in the GOP primaries and caucuses to emerge as the party’s nominee. 

Tonight's Iowa caucuses are the first test of the primary season — and an initial opportunity for Republicans to weigh in on whether they want former President Donald Trump to continue leading their party.

Here are the 2024 Republican presidential candidates:

Read more about the GOP candidates vying for the nomination.

In November, Americans will once again be filling out ballots to decide who will lead the country for the next four years. These ballots will have a single presidential candidate for each of the major parties, selected earlier in the year by a series of primary elections held in each state.

Today, Iowa Republicans will kick off the season by holding their version of a primary election – the Iowa caucuses.

Iowa has traditionally been the first state every four years to hold a presidential nominating contest of any kind. Here are some key things to know about a caucus:

Can anyone go to a caucus? Just like with primary elections, some states allow voters to come regardless of party affiliation, some require you to have been a registered party member beforehand, and some use a mix of the two. Iowa Republicans, for example, allow you to sign up to become a party member on the night of the caucuses. Check with your state’s party organization to find out how it will work for you.

Is a caucus the same as a primary? Yes and no. A caucus is put on by a political party as part of the presidential nominating process, but it’s not exactly the same as a primary election. Primary elections are held throughout the day and always use a private ballot. While the form caucuses take varies from state to state, caucuses are typically held at a specific time and often give voters an opportunity to listen to prospective candidate representatives before registering support for their candidate of choice.

Why does Iowa matter? Iowa represents the first major test of a campaign’s ability to communicate with voters on the national stage. As the first state in each cycle to have their primary, it catches candidates while their campaign funds are full and their energy is fresh. As a small state, Iowa also pitches itself as an opportunity for less well-funded candidates to have success campaigning on the ground. Despite the spotlight, the results of the Iowa caucuses have not consistently predicted who will eventually become the party’s nominee.

Read more about the Iowa caucuses here.