Super Tuesday 2020

As Joe Biden notched a number of wins on Super Tuesday, Republican strategists focused on down-ballot races had two main reactions: Biden’s success likely makes it harder for Republicans to defeat swing-state Democratic candidates, but it also presages a protracted fight in the Democratic primary that could benefit the GOP in November.

One persistent concern among moderate and establishment Democrats is that if Bernie Sanders is the nominee, it could spell trouble for Democratic incumbents and candidates in House and Senate races across the country. Many of them would be forced to distance themselves from Sanders’ far-left policies.

“A great night for Biden is a great night for the DSCC,” said a Republican strategist, referring to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Two other GOP operatives said they would rather have Sanders as the nominee so they could tie him and his policies to more moderate Democratic Senate challengers — like John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Cal Cunningham in North Carolina, and Mark Kelly in Arizona. Those Democrats might have a tougher time beating endangered Republican incumbents if they have to defend or answer for proposals like Medicare for All or even the “democratic socialist” label Sanders has given himself.

“Preferable to have the socialist with momentum rather than the likable yet bumbling clown,” said one of those operatives.

The other view is that more division and drama in the Democratic presidential primary benefits the Republican Party. The idea here is that while Republicans remain united behind President Trump, Democrats could spend months sniping at each other and sowing distrust between the progressive wing backing Sanders, and the rest of the party, which appears to be coalescing around Biden. 

The distrust among Sanders’ supporters for the Democratic establishment, who are increasingly backing Biden, could “be breaking the party apart” in a way that Republicans hope would depress turnout on the Democratic side in November, that second operative said.

Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale released a statement tonight emphasizing this point.

“I think a protracted fight is good for Republicans on net,” said the GOP strategist. “But there are advantages to knowing what you’re shooting at sooner rather than later.”

Elizabeth Warren’s poor performance in her home state reflected a loss of support among her core groups: women, white college-educated voters and liberals. 

Warren drew only around 1 in 10 women voters in Massachusetts, according to exit polls. That was significantly fewer than projected winner Joe Biden, who led with around a third of women, and Bernie Sanders with 3 in 10. 

Around 1 in 5 white college-educated Massachusetts Democrats chose Warren for the nomination -- less than the 3 in 10 who voted for Biden and 3 in 10 for Sanders. 

Finally, liberal voters, who might have split between Warren and Sanders, went strongly for Sanders, around 2 in 5, followed by Biden, around 3 in 10. Around 1 in 10 liberals voted for Warren. As in other states, Biden carried those over 65 and moderates in Massachusetts.

Mike Bloomberg has been heavily criticized for his support of the controversial stop-and-frisk policing policy while he was mayor of New York.

But that doesn’t seem to have dampened his support among blacks in Alabama, Massachusetts and Texas.

In all three states, Bloomberg captured a somewhat larger share of votes cast by blacks than by whites.

However, in several other states, the voting ratio was essentially the same. And the former mayor did relatively worse among black voters in Minnesota and Virginia.

A top Democrat and Warren confidant said Warren deserved the time to come to a decision on her own and shouldn’t be pushed from the race. But the reality is clear: She has no path.

Going into Super Tuesday, advisers said she wanted to stay in the race to become an alternative to Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. She wanted to be on the debate stage March 15 in Arizona to offer voters a third choice. 

The fading hopes are pinned entirely to her performance in California tonight, but the prospect of falling below viability in Texas makes an already difficult path even more so.

In Harris County, Texas – which includes Houston – nearly half of the polling stations remain open.

According to Harris County Elections spokesperson Rosio Torres, the data shows 371 polls are still open at this time, out of 802 sites.

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Results are still coming in from the two biggest prizes — California and Texas — in tonight's contests.

If you're just tuning in, here's where things stand as of now:

Joe Biden will win 8 states: The former vice president is projected to win eight states — Arkansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee.

Bernie Sanders to take 3 states: The Vermont senator is projected to win contests in Colorado, Vermont and Utah. Speaking at a rally tonight, Sanders vowed to win the Democratic nomination.

About California: It has a massive 415 delegates at stake. Meanwhile, in Los Angeles County, voters were given additional time to cast their ballots for candidates. Voters across the area reported long lines at polling centers.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren missed out on any sort of home-field advantage in her state's primary contest today.

Joe Biden won the state, despite a minimal campaign presence. And Bernie Sanders finished second. Warren came in third.

After falling short in her home state, and appearing to be nowhere close to first place in any of the other Super Tuesday contests, Warren faces a difficult decision on her campaign's next steps.

Before polls closed in Massachusetts, her campaign made it clear they planned to continue on to the next contests in Michigan, Arizona and Idaho, who vote later this month.

But without any major victories (or momentum) to point to, Warren may find an even more difficult path to the nomination -- and increasing questions about her future in this race.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren has lost her home state of Massachusetts to Joe Biden.

There had been signs in late February that Warren could finish behind neighboring Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Polling from WBUR and MassINC showed him markedly ahead of her. That same poll showed Biden in fifth place. 

Warren rarely led in polls of Massachusetts during the campaign, save for a spike around fall of 2019, when she briefly emerged as the primary’s frontrunner.

But as the results rolled in on Tuesday night, the depth of Warren’s troubles came into view. Not only was she trailing Sanders, but a resurgent Biden had leap-frogged them both.

Sanders narrowly lost Massachusetts in 2016 to Hillary Clinton. In that cycle, he sought to tap into the state’s progressive grassroots -- at the time energized by Warren.  

 Warren has represented Massachusetts in the Senate since 2012.

It’s not immediately clear what the Massachusetts loss means for the future of Warren's campaign.

Joe Biden will win Massachusetts, CNN projects, an upset in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's home state.

There are 91 delegates at stake in Massachusetts.

Who won in 2016: Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary and Donald Trump won the Republican primary. 

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