Coronavirus pandemic in the US

By Fernando Alfonso III, Melissa Macaya and Zamira Rahim, CNN

Updated 5:21 p.m. ET, May 29, 2020
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5:33 a.m. ET, May 29, 2020

CDC forecast projects more than 123,000 coronavirus deaths by June 20

From CNN's Arman Azad

A forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now projects more than 123,000 coronavirus deaths in the US by June 20.

The so-called ensemble forecast relies on more than a dozen individual forecasts from outside institutions and researchers. The new projections, published Thursday, forecast about 123,200 deaths by June 20, with a possible range of 115,400 to 134,800 deaths.

“This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates that the rate of increase in cumulative COVID-19 deaths is continuing to decline. Nevertheless, total COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed 115,000 by June 20,” the CDC says on its website.

Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections for the next month. The previous ensemble forecast projected that US deaths would exceed 110,000 by June 13.

This week’s ensemble forecast included projections from 15 models; it did not include projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and that model is not currently featured on the CDC website.

The projections are published on the CDC’s “COVID-19 Forecasts” page, but they’re also featured on the agency’s “COVID Data Tracker.” On both sites, users can view state-level ensemble forecasts as well.