A forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects more than 127,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by June 27.
The ensemble forecast relies on 20 individual forecasts from outside institutions and researchers. The new projections, published Thursday, forecast 127,230 deaths by June 27, with a possible range of 118,450 to 143,340 deaths.
“This week’s national ensemble forecast suggests that the number of newly-reported COVID-19 deaths per week will continue to decline. It predicts between 118,000 and 143,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by June 27,” the CDC says on its website.
Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections for the next month. The previous ensemble forecast, published last Thursday, projected about 123,200 deaths by June 20.
The projections are published on the CDC’s “COVID-19 Forecasts” page, but they’re also featured on the agency’s “COVID Data Tracker.” On both sites, users can view state-level ensemble forecasts as well.
“Ensemble forecasts indicate that the rate of newly-reported deaths will vary among the states,” the CDC says on its forecasts page.
“In some states, cumulative deaths will increase at roughly the same rate as they have in recent weeks, while other states are likely to experience only a small number of additional deaths from COVID-19."