June 11 coronavirus news

The UK government is facing tough questions over the timing of its coronavirus lockdown after influential epidemiologist Neil Ferguson said the United Kingdom could have cut the number of Covid-19 deaths by half if it had locked down just one week earlier.

Ferguson, who is based at Imperial College London, made the comments to the UK Parliament's Science and Technology Committee on Wednesday.

"The epidemic was doubling every 24 days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final death toll by at least a half," he said.

The UK went into lockdown on March 23, later than many other European nations. It currently has the second-highest number of recorded coronavirus-related deaths in the world, with 41,128 as of June 9, according to UK government figures.

Ferguson said the lockdown measures introduced on March 23 were warranted but were "second-guessed" at the time. "Certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths," he said. 

Asked what the UK coronavirus response should focus on going forward, Ferguson said more targeted interventions were needed in order to lift the nationwide lockdown. 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed back on the criticism, saying his government had followed scientific advice at the time -- including from Ferguson as a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) -- and that it was too early to cast judgment on the decisions made.

"Of course, we’ve got to learn lessons but I just think that it is at this stage premature. There’s still too much that we don’t know," Johnson said.

Johnson’s government has scrapped its original plan to reopen primary schools before the summer holidays, but announced it would allow adults living alone or single parents to form a “support bubble” with one other household.

Some context: Ferguson was one of the architects of the UK government's stay-at-home strategy and was a prominent member of SAGE, but he resigned from his government adviser post in May after the Telegraph newspaper revealed he broke lockdown rules by allowing his reported lover to visit his home.

India's richest city is buckling under the weight of the coronavirus crisis.

Mumbai is considered the country's financial and entertainment capital, home to international businesses and the glamorous world of Bollywood. But it's also a transport hub with a dense population and dramatic wealth inequality -- conditions that experts say allowed Covid-19 to spread out of control.

The city alone has reported more than 50,000 cases -- nearly a fifth of India's total, and more than the Chinese city of Wuhan, ground zero for the pandemic. Maharashtra state, home to Mumbai, has confirmed more cases than the whole of China. 

India has recorded more than 286,000 coronavirus cases, including at least 8,100 deaths, according to the country's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

Despite its prosperity, Mumbai's wealth is largely held by a small, elite group, who can afford care at expensive private hospitals. Most residents are left with public hospitals, which were quickly overwhelmed in April and May as the virus took hold.

At the public Nair Hospital, doctors have collapsed from exhaustion and dehydration, said one resident doctor there who requested anonymity.

Business travelers and tourists flow in and out of Mumbai, with many coming from places like Thailand or Malaysia that were hit by the virus before India.

"With lots of people carrying the virus coming here, the virus took root in the community," Sadanandan said. "Mumbai is the busiest place in India."

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Russia reported 8,779 new cases of coronavirus on Thursday, bringing the total number of recorded infections to 502,436, according to the country’s coronavirus response headquarters.

Over the past 24 hours, 174 people have died, taking the overall official toll to 6,532.

Observers have cast doubt on the country’s counting method, which permits ascribing deaths in patients who tested positive for coronavirus to other causes such as terminal illnesses and other underlying conditions.

On Wednesday, Moscow released mortality statistics for May, saying that in 5,260 cases coronavirus was “the main or concurrent cause of death.” The city’s health department said that only in 2,757 cases was coronavirus recorded as the main cause of death. 

Earlier this week, Moscow's mayor lifted self-isolation restrictions and the city is expected to reopen by the end of the month.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a postponed nationwide vote on constitutional reforms that could allow him to stay in power until 2036 would go ahead on July 1.

The country's massive May 9 Victory Day military parade was also rescheduled to take place on June 24.

A closely watched coronavirus model is now forecasting nearly 170,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by October 1. The projections paint a grim picture of what could come when summer turns to fall, with a steep rise in daily deaths forecast in September.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously only offered projections until August. It was cited often by the White House earlier in the pandemic, and it’s one of many models currently featured on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website.

It now projects that 169,890 people will die from Covid-19 in the US by October 1, with a possible range of about 133,000 to 290,000 deaths.

Daily deaths are expected to decrease through June and July then remain relatively stable through August. But the model forecasts a sharp rise in deaths come September.

In the model, projected daily deaths double from 410 on September 1 to 1,018 on October 1. Notably, though, the model’s uncertainty increases as time goes on. At the beginning of October, for example, the model offers a range of 96 to 4,382 possible daily deaths.

In a press release, IHME said its model is based on data through June 6. “Large gatherings in some states due to lifting of social distancing restrictions, gatherings on national holidays, and public protests are reflected in the general trend toward increased mobility,” the institute said.

The model looks at cell phone data, and increased mobility means people are moving around more. That could lead to more contact and opportunities for coronavirus transmission, but how exactly mobility corresponds with infections remains unclear. Behavioral changes like physical distancing and mask wearing could decrease the risk.

IHME says it includes other factors in its model as well, including data on testing, pneumonia trends, mask use, population density, air pollution, altitude, smoking and “self-reported contacts.”

According to the institute’s analysis, mask use results in a 50% reduction in Covid-19 transmission. But IHME’s data on masks is also self-reported, and it may not be representative of the population at large.

The IHME model has been closely watched, but it’s been criticized before for its assumptions and performance. It used to project that US coronavirus deaths would stop this summer, for example, which some experts said was unrealistic. IHME has since made a number of revisions to its methodology.

Still, the model is just one of many – and it’s not the only forecast offering longer-term projections. Another model, from independent data scientist Youyang Gu, projects that 201,550 people will die from Covid-19 in the US by October 1, with a range of about 147,000 to 284,000 deaths.

That model, which is also highlighted on the CDC’s website, projects an increase in daily deaths in July before a decrease in August and September. 

 Last Thursday, an ensemble forecast from the CDC projected more than 127,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by June 27. The short term forecast relied on 20 individual forecasts from outside institutions and researchers. The CDC regularly releases new projections, so another ensemble forecast could be released later today.

Chinese shoppers are finally starting to snap up high-end handbags, shoes and jewelry again, giving the luxury goods industry hope that a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is on the way.

But leading brands still face a tough road ahead, and will likely have to rethink the way they do business to withstand a damaging, worldwide hit to sales this year, as well as a shift in shopping habits in many recession-scarred economies.

Several luxury goods companies reported an uptick in China this spring as people emerged from weeks of lockdowns, spurring what some analysts have called a trend of "revenge spending" — the release of pent-up demand once people aren't forced to stay home.

Tiffany this week pointed to China as a bright spot for its jewelry business, saying that retail sales surged around 30% in April and 90% in May compared to the same months last year.

This was despite a drop of about 40% in Tiffany's global net sales in May. "Our business performance in mainland China, which was the first market impacted by the virus, is indicative that a robust recovery is underway," CEO Alessandro Bogliolo said during the company's earnings presentation on Tuesday.

Others have echoed similar thoughts. Burberry said last month that sales of its clothing, bags and accessories in China were "already ahead of the prior year, and continuing to show an improving trend."

Read the full story here.

The US surpassed 2 million confirmed coronavirus cases Wednesday night as new hotspots emerge and hospitalizations go up in some states.

More than 112,000 people have died from Covid-19 nationwide, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The spike in numbers highlights how complicated it is to stop the spread of the virus despite early hotspots such as New York and New Jersey seeing improved numbers.

Since Memorial Day, the number of coronavirus hospitalizations has gone up in at least a dozen states, according to data CNN aggregated from the Covid Tracking Project between May 25 to June 9. They are Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Utah. An additional 22 states are trending downward while nine others are holding steady.

Health experts issued a bleak prediction.

An additional 100,000 more people will die from coronavirus by September, said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts between 118,000 and 143,000 coronavirus deaths in the US by June 27.

Two Missouri hairstylists who worked while they had coronavirus did not infect the 140 clients they served despite having symptoms at the time, local health officials said.

Both stylists worked at the same Great Clips location in Springfield for more than a week in mid-May.

The clients and the stylists all wore face coverings, and the salon had set up other measures such as social distancing of chairs and staggered appointments, the Springfield-Greene County Health Department said this week.

Of the 140 clients and seven co-workers potentially exposed, 46 took tests that came back negative. All the others were quarantined for the duration of the coronavirus incubation period. The 14-day incubation period has now passed with no new infections linked to the salon, county health officials said.

During the quarantine, county health officials called those who did not take the test twice a day to ask whether they had symptoms related to Covid-19, said Kathryn Wall, a spokeswoman for the Springfield-Green County Health Department.

Read more here.

Latin America and the Caribbean have now recorded more than 70,000 deaths due to Covid-19.

Several countries in the region are struggling to contain the outbreak -- most notably Brazil, which has identified more than 772,000 cases, according to Johns Hopkins University (second only to the US), Peru and Mexico, which just reported a record daily surge in new cases.

Mexican paramedics are responding to 911 calls at an alarming rate, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage the capital of Mexico City. Many have died, and others say they feel scared and unsupported by the government as they continue to respond to the state of emergency

Quarantine measures extended in Chile: Chile’s mandatory quarantine measures against coronavirus will be extended effective Friday at 10:00 p.m. local time, Chile’s health ministry said in a statement released Wednesday.

The extended measures and new additions come as Chile reports 148,496 confirmed cases and 2,475 confirmed deaths.

President Donald Trump is getting what he wants: The country is opening up come what may, despite alarming indications that the coronavirus pandemic is intensifying its assault.

Trump says the virus is now reduced to just the "embers" and "ashes" of a spent pandemic as patience for nationwide lockdowns fades and states aggressively open up.

The facts say the opposite, however. Another 1,299 Americans died on Tuesday meaning that more than 112,000 people in the US have now died from the disease.

Trump is not marking these deaths, just as he was reluctant to immediately honor the first 100,000 Americans who passed away before that terrible milestone was reached -- barely two weeks ago. And this is well before the feared fall resurgence of Covid-19, in the absence of reliable treatments and with a vaccine still months away.

The President has been cajoling for reopenings for weeks, banking on the ebbing patience of a gregarious and industrious people who don't take well to being told to stay home. He's been ostentatiously moving around the country without a mask -- even if such behavior by the head of the government sets a poor example and shuns precautions that could keep Americans alive.

Trump is not just defying the virus -- he's poking a stick at officials' warnings to avoid large gatherings, planning a rally in Oklahoma next week and others in four states where infections are heading up after that. Vice President Mike Pence -- who heads the White House coronavirus task force -- on Wednesday tweeted a photo of his visit to crammed-together campaign workers, none of whom were wearing masks or social distancing. He later deleted the tweet.

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