June 16 coronavirus news

A combination of physical distancing, isolation and contact tracing could be the most effective way to control transmission of Covid-19, researchers in Britain reported Tuesday.

Kucharski and colleagues estimated that when communities combine isolation of those with symptoms with household quarantines and testing of contacts, transmission rates could be cut by up to 64%.

“We estimated that if some level of physical distancing were maintained, it could supplement reductions in transmission from contact tracing,” they wrote in their report, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases.

This can be compared to a situation where there is mass random testing done on 5% of the population each week. That, the team projected, would only lead to a 2% decrease in transmission. This is because substantially fewer infections would be detected and many of the newly diagnosed cases could have already transmitted the infection to others.

“For this mathematical modelling study, we used a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school or other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40,162 UK participants,” the researchers wrote.

They simulated how a range of different testing, isolation, tracing and physical distancing scenarios would work to reduce transmission.

The study did not consider the possibility of mass gatherings and assumed that any contacts made outside the home would be different each day.

The Brazilian health ministry reported a record high of 34,918 new cases of the coronavirus on Tuesday, bringing the country’s total to 923,189.

Brazil’s last daily record for new cases was on May 30, when the country reported 33,274 cases.

The country also recorded 1,282 new Covid-19 fatalities over the past 24 hours, bringing the country’s death toll to 45,241 according to the health ministry.

After partially reopening New York City more than a week ago, Mayor Bill de Blasio said he is encouraged by the latest Covid-19 numbers.

"We’ve been cautious... and it’s served us well," de Blasio told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "The coronavirus has been receding in New York City, thank God. People have done an amazing job with the face coverings, and the social distancing."

Phase two of the city's reopening plan would see "many hundreds of thousands of people come back to work," the mayor noted, but it can't happen unless the statistics tell the appropriate story.

"We need to see data that convinces both the city and the state that we're ready to go as early as June 22nd… it may take another week or more before we're totally confident, but really it is about the numbers," he said.

One of the wild cards in the reopening schedule centers around recent "Black Lives Matter" gatherings. With so many New Yorkers coming together physically, the mayor admits concern of a possible Covid-19 resurgence.

"We had a lot of protests here. We're going to know in the next four, five days what the impact of that was," de Blasio told Blitzer, noting that despite potential health risks, he doesn't regret allowing residents to take to the streets.

"There are moments in history you got to see what's really going on. There's been an outpouring of frustration, of pain, of anger, demanding changes," he said. "That kind of grassroots spontaneous outpouring, you can't just ignore it."

However, for New York City to move forward in its opening, Covid-19 data will have to continue to display a decrease.

"We like what we see. People are still following the rules," the mayor said, adding that with the return of outdoor dining on the horizon, "bars and restaurants are going to take a lot of monitoring."

A group of Tulsa based attorneys have filed a lawsuit to prevent the Trump campaign from holding a planned rally on Saturday unless the organizers agree to take steps to adhere to recommended guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In addition to the lawsuit, the attorneys are requesting a hearing to ask for an emergency temporary injunction to prevent the rally from happening this weekend while the lawsuit moves forward.

The lawsuit was filed on behalf of a series of community groups and two specific individuals who the attorneys describe as particularly vulnerable to the spread of Covid-19. In their complaint they describe the indoor event as a “super spreader” that could end up impacting even people who choose not to attend. They point to the CDC recommended guidelines in their complaint as evidence that the proposed event could cause a great danger to the public.

The Trump campaign plans to hold the event in the 20,000-seat BOK Center in downtown Tulsa and administration officials say they plan to pack the space without taking any mandatory social distancing precautions.

Lara Trump, senior Trump campaign adviser and daughter-in-law to Trump, said in an interview with Fox on Monday that the campaign will not “enforce that everybody wear a mask” at the rally. “We are offering people masks,” Lara Trump said. “If they choose to wear them, we are happy with that. If they choose not to wear them, we are not going to go around and enforce that everybody wear a mask.”

The suits were not filed against the President or his campaign, instead they were filed against SMG, the company that manages the BOK Center where the event is scheduled to take place.

The lead attorney on the case is Clark Brewster, who has represented Stormy Daniels, the adult film star who claimed to have had an affair with Trump and entered into an arrangement with Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen to keep her story quiet.

The Trump campaign declined to comment on the lawsuit.

A study showing that children and teens are half as likely as adults to become infected with coronavirus might be good news for schools seeking to reopen, a former top health policy adviser to former President Barack Obama said Tuesday.

The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Medicine, estimated that people under the age of 20 are about half as susceptible to Covid-19 infection as those age 20 or over.

There are some cautions, added Emanuel, who is now chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania. The study also found 80% of those infected did not have any symptoms.

“It does mean that they're not likely to be symptomatic, so it might be hard to pick out which students to keep home, and it might spread in schools,” Emanuel said.

“But on the other hand, given the fact that they have a low infection rate, they get it less frequently, and they tend to be asymptomatic, and so it's not so problematic if they do get it, I think those are good signs. And I think, in general, people are interpreting this as we probably can reopen schools, with lots of things — physical distancing, hand hygiene, face mask wearing ,and de-densification of the schools," he said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is looking at how to enforce existing House rules to force members to wear masks during committee proceedings, according to a senior Democratic aide.

At the moment, she's not looking at forcing members to wear masks on the floor because committee proceedings can last for many hours, the aide said.

Pelosi could order her committee chairs to enforce House rule 11 against members who don't wear masks.

What it does: The rule gives the power to committee chairs to enforce breaches of decorum by excluding members from participating in proceedings. No final decision has been made.

Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum said in a Facebook post he did not know the "invitation had been extended" for Saturday's campaign rally. 

Bynum said he will not attempt to block the state government or President Trump by invoking the local civil emergency authority in the city's ordinance. 

"That authority was used earlier this year under extraordinary circumstances to prevent the catastrophic collapse of our local health care system. Today, that system's capacity is strong," he wrote. 

"We are navigating a balance between freedom and safety that is new for every city around the world," Bynum added. 

The Trump campaign has agreed to follow Oklahoma's guidelines for reopening, and they will utilize safety precautions at the event, according to the mayor. 

It's 5:30 p.m. ET in New York. If you're just joining up, here are the latest headlines on coronavirus from the US.

Georgetown University has canceled all study abroad and international exchange programs for the fall 2020 semester, according to an email sent Monday by Provost Robert Groves.

The decision applies to all university-sponsored international travel for undergrad, graduate and professional students, according to the email.

The university said it made the decision now to give time to students to adjust their plans for the fall. A decision about whether in-person classes will be offered for undergraduate students who remain on Georgetown's campus in the fall has not yet been announced.