An ensemble forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects more than 157,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by August 8.
This week’s national forecast relies on 24 individual forecasts from outside institutions and researchers. The new projections, published Wednesday, forecast 157,204 deaths by August 8, with a possible range of 149,957 to 168,305 deaths.
"The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks in 22 states and 2 territories," the CDC says on its forecasting website.
"The jurisdictions with the greatest likelihood of a larger number of deaths include: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, the Virgin Islands, and West Virginia."
Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections about a month into the future. The previous ensemble forecast, published last Thursday, projected roughly 147,000 coronavirus deaths by August 1.
At least 139,266 people have died from Covid-19 in the United States, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.