The University of Washington now projects there will be 219,864 US deaths from Covid-19 by November 1, based on the current scenario.
Last week, the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecast 224,546 total deaths by November.
The latest update reflects a decrease of about 5,000 deaths in part due to increasing mandates for members of the public to wear masks, and the general increase in the number of people wearing masks and social distancing even without mandates.
If the US universally adopted wearing masks, that number of deaths by November 1 would drop to 185,887, the model projects. However, if the mandates ease more, then the United States could see 231,012 deaths by that time.
Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at IHME, said that they’ve seen more people wearing masks in states that have seen a recent spike in cases such as in Florida, California, Texas and Arizona, but the states that have mask mandates have seen more universal adoption.
“So a mandate is very important and helping and a national mandate, of course, would do much better,” Mokdad told CNN.
So far, according to Johns Hopkins University, more than 3.91 million Americans have been infected with coronavirus and at least 142,350 have died.