An ensemble forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects more than 164,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by August 15.
The new projections, published Thursday, forecast 164,477 deaths by August 15, with a possible range of 158,490 to 173,431 deaths.
“National and state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next 4 weeks will likely exceed the number reported over the last 4 weeks for the US overall, as well as in 25 states and 1 territory,” the CDC says on its forecasting website.
The jurisdictions with the greatest likelihood of a larger number of deaths include:
- South Carolina
More on the projection: Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections about a month into the future.
The previous ensemble forecast, published July 15, projected roughly 157,000 coronavirus deaths by August 8.
At least 143,446 people have already died from Covid-19 in the United States, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.