An influential coronavirus model has updated its forecast for January, predicting a “most likely” scenario of 415,090 US deaths by January.
“The new 415,000 US death projection by January 1 represents a more than doubling of deaths over the past six months,” the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, said in its latest forecast.
In a worst-case scenario, deaths could reach more than 600,000 by Jan 1, the IHME said.
According to Johns Hopkins University, nearly 6.4 million infections have been recorded in the US and more than 191,000 Americans have died. In the IHME’s best case scenario, just under 300,000 people will die.
“But US mark use is trending in the wrong direction. At the present time, only six states have 50% mask use: California, Texas, Virginia, Hawaii, Florida and Alaska,” the IHME said.