National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday that he believes a coronavirus vaccine may be proven safe and effective by November or December of this year.
‘‘I would still put my money on November/December,” Fauci said, during a Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute panel on global pandemics.
Fauci said that current modeling indicates that about 150 infections need to occur in a vaccine trial to be able to make a determination of efficacy.
“Right now, the trials are over two thirds enrolled – really close to full enrollment on one, and over full enrollment on the other,” he said.
He pointed out that some people, like himself, think it’s likely that an answer about efficacy will be ready by November or December, while others have said it could be as early as October.
“It really depends on where the sites are and how many infections there are in a site,” Fauci said. “So you could get your answer sooner, or you can get your answer a bit later.”
Fauci said his projection of November or December is informed by calculations based on where the clinical trial sites are in their studies.