An influential United States coronavirus model has updated its forecast for January, predicting a “most likely” scenario of 378,321 deaths in the country by January 1 -- a big drop in the forecast from just a week ago.
The new Covid-19 forecast was released Saturday from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Just last week, it had forecast 415,090 virus-related deaths.
“This decline is driven by steeper than expected declines seen in deaths in several states. In our model, these declines push out further into January and February the expected seasonal surge, reducing the number of deaths expected by January 1,” the IHME explained.
“We expect over 3,000 deaths per day by the end of December. Between now and January 1 we expect approximately 180,000 deaths.”
If a universal mask mandate was put in place, the number of projected deaths could drop dramatically to an estimated 263,483, IMHE said -- but if current restrictions are eased, the projected number soars to 445,605.
“Even if herd immunity were to occur at a low level, such as 40% (the level seen in Mexico City now) with cumulative infections, by January 1, the US epidemic would only be less than half over,” the IHME said.