An update from an influential coronavirus model has upped its predictions of Covid-19 deaths in the US from 562,000 to 567,195 by April 1, 2021.
The impact of vaccines: 33,200 lives will be saved by a projected vaccine rollout, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model. A rapid rollout would save 45,000 lives.
Why masks are crucial: Mask wearing has increased to 74% in the US, but expanding mask wearing to 95% would reduce deaths by 49,000 by April 1.
If states ease coronavirus mandates, the model projects 731,000 deaths by April 1.
Even as daily deaths increase nationally, some states in the Midwest are seeing flat or declining cases or hospitalization, IHME notes.
“Daily deaths are expected to rise into mid-January and then begin declining if state governments impose mandates on gatherings, bar and restaurant openings, and other major locations for transmission,” the Institute of Health Metric and Evaluation (IHME) said.
“Daily deaths in the absence of concerted government action can reach over 5,000 by mid-February.”